Orioles roster projection: Will Jackson Holliday break camp in the major leagues?

SARASOTA, Fla. — The Orioles don’t have to formally announce their opening day roster until Thursday morning, but the biggest question could be answered this weekend.

Will Jackson Holliday break camp in the major leagues?

In December, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said it was a “very strong possibility.” Each day that’s passed this spring has made it more likely that would be the case, as the 20-year-old wows with his approach at the plate and demeanor off the field.

But it’s still not a foregone conclusion. The Orioles have one of the deepest rosters in the American League. To keep Holliday, Baltimore would likely be losing a couple players to waivers, and finding him a place to play every day could be a challenge with a deep infield.

Holliday is far from the only player competing for a roster spot who has impressed this spring. Prospects Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo and Kyle Stowers as well as veterans Jorge Mateo and Ramón Urías have looked like the best versions of themselves in Florida.

The decisions Elias & company have to make are perhaps harder this year than in any during his tenure. As Orioles spring training nears an end, here is a projection for Baltimore’s 26-man opening day roster assuming every player remains healthy. (Note: This is based on players presently in the organization and does not consider those the team could acquire or part ways with.)

Starting pitchers (5): Corbin Burnes, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells

Other candidates: Albert Suárez, Julio Teheran

The rotation is the lone area of the roster without any intrigue. Manager Brandon Hyde on Thursday revealed his five-man starting rotation to begin the season. Following ace Corbin Burnes, who starts opening day March 28 at Camden Yards, will be Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin, in that order.

The only question was whether the Orioles would go with a four-man rotation in early April — a luxury the schedule could provide thanks to three days off in the first two weeks. But Hyde said it would be too early in the season to do that.

Of course, this is just what the rotation will look like to open the season. Left-hander John Means could return in late April after opening the campaign on the injured list as he ramps up from a delayed start this spring, while right-hander Kyle Bradish could follow later in the season as he recovers from a sprained ulnar collateral ligament.

Corbin Burnes wasn’t a pitcher until he was a high school senior. He struggled as a freshman at a small D1. He earned his spot in the Cape by happenstance.

Burnes was never destined to be an ace. That fact is why he became one.

On the making of an ace: https://t.co/qPCcWJEbUM

— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) March 21, 2024

Relief pitchers (8): Keegan Akin, Mike Baumann, Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Craig Kimbrel, Cionel Pérez, Dillon Tate, Jacob Webb

Other candidates: Bryan Baker, Jonathan Heasley, Albert Suárez, Andrew Suárez, Julio Teheran

Three of these pitchers are locks: closer Craig Kimbrel, left-hander Danny Coulombe and sinkerballer Yennier Cano. Three more are near-locks: southpaw Cionel Pérez, minor league optionless Mike Baumann and now-healthy Dillon Tate.

That leaves two spots, and the type of pitcher the club wants to fill them with will determine who claims those jobs. If the Orioles want a third left-hander, Keegan Akin is the front-runner ahead of Andrew Suárez, a nonroster invitee with four years of big league experience. Akin spent most of the past three seasons in the majors, although his 2023 campaign was derailed by poor performance and a back injury. But he has impressed this spring with 10 strikeouts in 7 1/3 scoreless innings.

If the Orioles want a short-relief right-hander, Jacob Webb, despite his up-and-down spring, would likely claim that spot ahead of Bryan Baker because the former doesn’t have a minor league option remaining and would be subjected to waivers if he doesn’t break camp with the Orioles. If the Orioles want a traditional long reliever, that means one of the following righties would make the team: Julio Teheran, Jonathan Heasley or Albert Suárez. Teheran would have the upper hand here because, as a veteran nonroster invitee, the 33-year-old has an opt-out clause that he could initiate if he doesn’t make the roster.

Given the days off in April, it doesn’t appear a long man is required in the bullpen. A third lefty in Akin, who can also pitch multiple innings, would be valuable, and losing a reliever like Webb this early in the season isn’t preferable.

Catchers (2): James McCann, Adley Rutschman

Other candidates: Maverick Handley, Michael Pérez

Adley Rutschman finished top 10 in AL Most Valuable voting last season, and he has the sixth-best odds to win the award on DraftKings Sportsbook. James McCann won’t be up for any awards this season, but his value as a clubhouse leader, veteran presence for the pitching staff and solid backup to Rutschman makes him perhaps one of the sport’s best No. 2 catchers.

If either is injured, Maverick Handley, a prospect who has performed well in Triple-A, and Michael Pérez, a six-year MLB veteran, are potential depth options.

Infielders (7): Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Urías, Jordan Westburg

Other candidates: Nick Maton, Coby Mayo, Tyler Nevin, Connor Norby

In previous editions of this roster projection, Holliday was not listed as making the team. His young age, small amount of Triple-A experience, lack of repetitions at second base and the quagmire that is his service time were all factors that rightfully fueled skeptics.

Even as he put up excellent numbers early in spring training, the quality of his plate appearances was a question, as he struck out 13 times and walked just once in his first 11 games — an uncharacteristic trend for a player who nearly walked as much as he struck out last season in the minors. But his recent plate appearances, including those against National League Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider and former All-Star Chris Bassitt, were as impressive as any player could take. He’s also made several solid plays at second base and has yet to make an error in his more than 80 innings in the field.

Holliday entered camp with the chance to play his way onto the roster, and the sport’s top prospect has gone above and beyond proving he’s worthy of being a big leaguer.

But the youngster’s addition to the roster isn’t at the expense of another infielder. Urías and Mateo, who are both optionless, have also played well this spring, proving again they can be valuable pieces for the Orioles. Urías has experience at all four infield spots and is expected to get time at both third and second base. Mateo has spent the spring playing the middle infield as well as all three outfield spots, setting him up for a super utility role after Hyde said Thursday that he is a lock for the opening day roster.

Mayo and Connor Norby have also impressed at camp, but neither entered this spring with clear paths to roster spots. Neither Tyler Nevin nor Nick Maton have a minor league option left, meaning they could be scooped up by another team on waivers if they fail to break camp with the Orioles.

Jorge Mateo is making the opening day roster.

So now what?

Here's what that means for the Orioles' roster construction and Jackson Holliday's chances to break camp with the big club: https://t.co/FmjHZ8fmrv

— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) March 21, 2024

Outfielders (4): Colton Cowser, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander

Other candidates: Heston Kjerstad, Ryan McKenna, Kyle Stowers

With Holliday, Urías and Mateo all making the team, that limits Baltimore to only keep four traditional outfielders. Mateo could play center field and potentially the corners, while first baseman Ryan O’Hearn could fill in as a corner outfielder.

That leaves four capable outfielders with major league experience for one spot behind starters Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander. And the player who appears likely to snag that job is the one who prospect rankers consider the most talented as well as the one who has performed the best this spring.

Cowser hasn’t just been the Orioles’ top sluggers in camp, he’s been one of the best hitters across all MLB this spring. The 24-year-old is the club’s third-best prospect and ranked No. 19 in the sport, according to MLB Pipeline, and he flashed that potential this spring. His first taste of the big leagues was a sour one, but he’s slumped at each new level throughout his professional career before then breaking through.

This result means Stowers, who’s hit a whopping seven home runs this spring and has already proven he’s too good for Triple-A, and consensus top 100 prospect Heston Kjerstad, who hit well in the majors late last season, would begin the year with the Norfolk Tides without a clear path to getting back to the show. It would also lead to McKenna, a staple on the Orioles’ bench the past three seasons as a defensive replacement, pinch runner and occasional starter against left-handed pitchers, potentially being claimed off waivers by another team, as the 27-year-old is without a minor league option.