Jake Guentzel return sounds nice, but is not likely

This is the type of thing that just does not happen often in the NHL.

From the moment Jake Guentzel’s name was on the trade block the theory existed — trade him for a haul at the deadline, and then re-sign him in the summer as a free agent.

You get the players and assets all for basically renting him out for a couple of months.

It is a good idea. I get why fans want to see it happen. But how likely is it, and how often does that sort of thing happen?

The idea got another boost this week when The Athletic’s Josh Yohe was asked about it in his recent Pittsburgh Penguins mailbag. He said that team sources told him in recent days to not rule out the possibility of Guentzel returning, even if he did not think it would actually happen.

I agree that it is probably not going to happen.

For a couple of reasons.

First, the Penguins have had since July 1 to sign Guentzel and meet his asking price. They never came close, and reportedly did not really try all that hard. Even as the season kicked off and the trade deadline got closer. Re-signing him just never seemed to be a priority, and for whatever reason he ended up being the one member of the core that was deemed tradable. It happened.

This summer is going to be Guentzel’s one big opportunity to score a huge contract in free agency, and unless he takes a one-year deal somewhere it will probably be his only opportunity. There are going to be 31 other teams with a shot at him and he is probably going to have his choice of destinations, including teams that probably have more salary cap space than the Penguins, an opportunity to offer more money, and most likely a better chance to win.

Now, nobody else can offer the opportunity to play next to Sidney Crosby — something both Guentzel and Crosby benefitted from — but money and a chance to win will probably speak louder.

Second, this just is not the type of thing that happens very often in the NHL. Usually when you trade a rental, that’s it. It is extraordinarily rare for a player that gets traded as a rental to return to the team that traded them in free agency.

It is also very rarely high-profile players doing it.

A few of the more prominent examples where that happened include...

• Keith Tkachuk getting trade from St. Louis to Atlanta during the 2006-07 season for first, second, and third round picks, only to return to St. Louis after the season. The Blues actually traded a first-round pick to re-acquire his free agency rates, so it turned out that St. Louis only received second-and third-round picks for him.
• Matt Moulson was traded by the Buffalo Sabres during the 2013-14 season (just months after he was acquired for Thomas Vanek) to the Minnesota Wild at the deadline and then returned to New York after the season on a multi-year deal.
• The Arizona Coyotes have actually pulled it off twice, once with Zbynek Michalek during the 2014-15 season, trading him to St. Louis and then re-signing him the following summer, and again with Antoine Vermette (also in 2014-15) when they basically rented him out to Chicago for its Stanley Cup run.
• The Calgary Flames traded Olli Jokinen to the New York Rangers during the 2009-10 season and then re-signed him that offseason.
• There is a prominent Penguins example, also involving Carolina. During the 2005-06 season, Crosby’s rookie year, Mark Recchi was traded to the Hurricanes for Krys Kolanos, Niklas Nordgren and a second-round draft pick. After helping the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup, he returned to Pittsburgh as a free agent where he would play a couple of more seasons before being waived.

So it does happen. It even happened in the Crosby era with the Penguins. It just is not very likely. Or common.

Given the chemistry Guentzel and Crosby have had over the years, not to mention the success, I do think it might up the chances a little bit because it is such a rare situation, but I can’t get past the reality the Penguins had the chance to sign him already. Not only did they not do it, they showed little interest in it.

If the Penguins could pull it off and get Guentzel and Michael Bunting on the same team all for just loaning the former to Carolina for a playoff run, then that would be a pretty strong masterclass of asset management by the Kyle Dubas and the Penguins.

It is fun to think about it.

I just do not expect it.