Tories On Course To Lose 500 Seats At The Local Elections, Experts Predict
The Tories are set to lose 500 seats in the upcoming local elections, according to leading polling experts.
Highly-respected duo Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher say the Conservatives are on course to lose half the seats they are defending on May 2.
Labour are set to gain around 300 seats, with the Lib Dems and Greens also expected to see their number of councillors increase, the pair said.
The result would be yet another hammer-blow for Rishi Sunak, and could even trigger fresh moves to dump him as prime minister.
More than 2,600 seats will be up for grabs across England, with the Tories and Labour defending around 1,000 each.
The last time those seats were up for election, in 2001, the Conservatives were enjoying a surge in popularity thanks to the success of the Covid vaccine rollout.
They comfortably won with a national equivalent vote (NEV) share of 40%, compared to Labour’s 30%.
But writing for the Local Government Chronicle, Rallings and Thrasher said that means “Conservative losses are inevitable” this time around.
They said: “If the Conservatives repeat their poor performance of 2023, when the NEV put them below 30%, they stand to lose up to 500 seats – half their councillors facing election.
“Labour may make about 300 gains, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both likely to advance. We will not know the extent of any Reform party challenge until nominations close, but it cannot be completely discounted.”
Tory rebels believe a disastrous local election result on May 2 could lead to enough MPs sending in letters of no confidence in Sunak to trigger a vote on his leadership.
The PM was hit by a fresh blow yesterday when two ministers, James Heappey and Robert Halfon, quit the government.
Some 63 Conservative MPs have also announced that they are standing down at the election as the party heads for defeat.
Meanwhile, polling expert Professor John Curtice told Politico that there was just a 1% chance of the Tories forming the next government.