Cold reality of play-in fate heightens Heat apprehension, ‘Our guys are not ignorant’
MIAMI – They’re not ready to concede, because there is no need at this stage. But where there seemingly solely was playoff talk by the Miami Heat, there now is a degree of play-in recognition, if not resignation.
“Right now,” forward Haywood Highsmith said in the wake of Tuesday night’s 113-92 loss to the Golden State Warriors, “we’re seven, that’s the reality. We’ve got to live in that and figure out ways to get some wins in these next games coming up and see if we can move up in the rankings.
“If we can’t, we’ll stay where we’re at and figure out a way to win the play-in game and get ready for the actual playoffs.”
With 10 games remaining in their regular season, the Heat find themselves in an all-too-familiar position. The question is whether they can produce a familiar result.
Last season, through 72 games, Erik Spoelstra’s team stood 38-34, on the way to an eventual seventh-place regular-season finish in the East. This time around, the record is 39-33 heading into the final 10 games.
Last season, from seventh place the Heat wound up with the No. 8 conference seed . . . and rode that all the way to the NBA Finals.
It certainly was a path less traveled . . . and one seemingly highly unlikely to be replicated.
Against that backdrop is now a two-way break before concluding this four-game homestand Friday night at Kaseya Center against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Against that backdrop is significant standings awareness.
“Our guys understand,” Spoelstra said. “Our guys are not ignorant.”
It is a system of which the Heat have full understanding.
Finish among the top six seeds in the East and advance directly to the best-of-seven first round.
Otherwise, the treacherous play-in round, where with one or two losses, there are no playoffs, which would be a first for the Heat since 2018-19, the season before Jimmy Butler arrived.
“We take it game by game,” center Bam Adebayo said. “I feel like every game at this point is must-win.”
Which essentially is the case.
The Heat went into their two-day break Wednesday tied for No. 7 in the East with the Philadelphia 76ers, in that spot by virtue of a head-to-head 2-1 lead in the four-game season series that concludes April 4 at Kaseya Center. The Heat also went into this two-day break one game behind the No. 6 Indiana Pacers in the loss column, with that season series tied 1-1 heading into the April 7 series finale in Indiana. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker, followed by conference record.
“We’re just trying to find ways to win games,” Highsmith said. “We’ve got 10 games left, so we’re trying to finish the season strong, trying to build some momentum heading into the playoffs, whether that’s in the play-in or not in the play-in.
“I looked at the standings a couple of times. I’m pretty sure we can catch the six seed, if we put some wins together. I don’t know about the fifth seed, the fourth seed.”
If not direct entry into the playoffs, then the highest play-in seed would be the goal.
In the play-in, No. 7 hosts No. 8 in a game to determine the No. 7 playoff seed and first-round matchup against the No. 2 conference seed. The loser of that game then plays the winner of No. 9-No. 10 for the right to enter the best-of-seven first round as the No. 8 seed, playing the top seed in the East.
Last season, the Heat went 6-4 over their final 10 games to close in seventh place. They then lost the No. 7-No. 8 game to the visiting Atlanta Hawks, their playoff hopes salvaged with a fourth-quarter comeback against the visiting Chicago Bulls for the No. 8 seed.
Last year, that meant an opening-round series against the ailing Milwaukee Bucks. This year, No. 8 would mean a first-round series against the dominant Boston Celtics.
For the Heat, the final 10 games feature several matchups against teams in highly competitive seeding battles beyond the games against the 76ers and Pacers, including matchups against the New York Knicks, Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks.
“You start to understand it starts to become playoff time, so games start to become different,” Adebayo said. “Even in these last 10 in the regular season, games are starting to slow down, starting to become possession by possession, because we’re not the only team that wants to get out of the play-in, so you’re going to start to see that shift.”