Will Kacey Musgraves make a Grammys comeback with ‘Deeper Well’?

Few country stars have been embraced by the Grammys like Kacey Musgraves has. The singer-songwriter rose to prominence with her mainstream debut, “Same Trailer Different Park,” which became one of the most acclaimed albums of 2013, earning an 89 score on Metacritic and establishing Musgraves as one to watch in the industry. She received four Grammy nominations that year and won Best Country Album in a major upset against Taylor Swift’s commercial blockbuster “Red.” Musgraves followed that with another Grammy-nominated record, “Pageant Material,” but her third try was the charm: “Golden Hour” won Album of the Year and swept its three other nominations in the country field. Then came the pop-leaning “Star-Crossed,” which nevertheless received two country nominations. This year Musgraves is back with “Deeper Well,” which many are considering a return to form and a folk-country masterpiece. She is for sure getting her usual country nominations. But can she crossover to the general field again?

“Deeper Well” has a few advantages that country albums usually don’t have. It’s by a previous Album of the Year winner, which means Musgraves is well known beyond just country voters. And sure, many might claim the relative disappointment of “Star-Crossed” as proof that “Golden Hour” was a fluke, but that record had a few drawbacks that “Deeper Well” doesn’t have. Mainly, “Star-Crossed” was considered too pop for many, which may have seemed like a “sell out” move to purist country fans. In fact, the album was controversially moved from Best Country Album to Best Pop Vocal Album during the submissions phase for the 2022 Grammys. So a lot of Musgraves’s base of Americana and country voters maybe weren’t that excited to vote for it. This time, however, she’s back with a record that’s clearly not pop, and in fact borders on Americana and folk, while still being accessible enough to appeal to pop voters, similar to “Golden Hour.”

And speaking of accessibility, “Deeper Well” is a success. The record debuted at number-two on the Billboard 200 with 97,000 equivalent album units, Musgraves’s biggest week ever. That kind of success is huge, especially for an artist who rarely gets country airplay, unlike other country chart toppers like Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen. This album also sees Musgraves once again crossing over to different audiences; she sent the track “Cardinal” to adult alternative radio, where a lot of alternative and Americana-leaning voters might hear it. Last year Album of the Year nominees Boygenius ruled this format, and so have other genre acts like Brandi Carlile and Black Pumas.

This is also a weaker year, at least so far, than when “Star-Crossed” competed. Going into the 2022 awards we had smash pop albums from Doja Cat, Lil Nas X, Billie Eilish, Olivia Rodrigo, Taylor Swift and more, as well as big releases from Grammy darlings Kanye West, Lady Gaga, and H.E.R. As of this writing, this eligibility period has seen fewer high-profile releases, besides some major contenders from Ariana Grande, Beyoncé and Swift. And most of the time Grammy voters would rather go for established nominees/winners over new artists, unless the newcomers have had a massive cultural breakthrough, so it’s even likelier that voters gravitate towards Musgraves.

So you might want to consider Musgraves and “Deeper Well” in your Grammy predictions. There’s a big barrier for her to overcome considering how poorly country music has performed in the general field since the nomination review committees were eliminated. But if anyone can do so, it’s Album of the Year winner Musgraves, especially with such an introspective new record.

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