Big changes could be coming to the way we pay for things

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Hello! The hit docuseries "Quiet on Set" will release a bonus fifth episode on April 7. The series covers the toxic and unsafe working conditions on the sets of Nickelodeon TV shows and was based on Business Insider's 2022 investigation.

In today's big story, we're examining how a change in credit cards' behind-the-scenes fees impacts you… and your points. 

What's on deck:

• Markets: BlackRock's Larry Fink tries to solve America's retirement woes.

• Tech: Companies aren't being entirely truthful about the impact AI will have on them.

• Business: The Baltimore port closure could cost $15 million per day in lost economic activity.

But first, do it for the points.

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The big story

Swipe saga

Cash or credit?

It's an age-old question for shoppers. But a new agreement between payment giants and merchants could upend the equation. 

Visa and Mastercard came to a settlement with US merchants over the fees they charge when handling their credit-card transactions, writes Business Insider's Grace Eliza Goodwin.

The settlement, which still needs to be approved, would lower and cap swipe fees for the next few years, ultimately leading to almost $30 billion in savings, according to the merchants' lawyers.

The agreement about these behind-the-scenes fees could also eventually impact consumers. Under the settlement, merchants could charge customers more for using different cards despite being part of the same Visa or Mastercard network. 

The last point is particularly important since cards with the highest swipe fees often offer the best cash-back rewards and benefits. That means using your go-to credit card for racking up points might cost you a bit extra. 

The agreement could ultimately reshape how consumers pay for things. 

David Morris, the principal analyst for payments at eMarketer, called the settlement's potential impact "enormous" since it gives merchants more flexibility in handling different payment methods. 

Another source in the payment space I spoke to said it gave momentum to the adoption of open banking — the concept of banks having to share customer data with each other that's already popular in Europe.

Where things land will be interesting, though. Merchants still want to make the payment process seamless for their customers, lest they risk losing them to a competitor. 

Perhaps that's why one analyst told Business Insider's Alex Bitter he doesn't expect major retailers to pass swipe fees along to customers. Instead, they'll just absorb the costs via other channels like labor, he said.

That might be possible for a giant chain, but that's a difficult proposition for smaller businesses, which often already charge more for credit-card transactions. One investor in the space told me smaller merchants could form buying groups to increase their negotiating power.

In the meantime, some merchants are already voicing their displeasure. The settlement, which took nearly two decades to reach, "amounts to pennies on the dollar." 

But maybe, not unlike the fees the agreement targets, what seems small could eventually add up to something big.

3 things in markets

1. BlackRock's Larry Fink wants to fix the US retirement crisis. The CEO of the world's largest money manager outlined steps the country can take in his annual letter to investors. His advice includes automating investing for workers and helping retirees spend their savings more easily. Here are more takeaways from his letter.

2. Jeremy Grantham is worried about the market. The investing legend warned bull markets that start when the economy is booming end badly. He also bashed bitcoin and shrugged off de-dollarization fears.   

3. These five charts show that the job market is about to slow down. Pantheon Macroeconomics founder Ian Shepherdson believes the US economy is set to weaken in the second quarter. That'll set the stage for the Fed to cut interest rates five times in 2024, he said.

3 things in tech

1. We've entered the age of AI BS. Maybe AI will steal our jobs. Maybe it'll kill us all. Or perhaps it's all just hype. While it's not super clear what the future of artificial intelligence holds, one thing is: everyone is lying a little bit about it right now.

2. Meta spied on rivals. Newly unsealed emails show that Mark Zuckerberg told Facebook execs to "figure out" how to track encrypted usage on rival apps like Snap, YouTube, and Amazon. The program went on for at least three years.

3. More layoffs at Amazon. The tech giant is making more job cuts in its advertising unit, according to an internal email obtained by BI. The layoffs are part of a longer-term cost-cutting effort that Amazon kicked off in 2022.

3 things in business

1. Don't wait to buy a home. Prospective homebuyers are holding out hope that mortgage rates will fall again — but that's a big mistake. Borrowing rates falling might not make homebuying easier. In fact, another spike in demand could ultimately make it worse.

2. TikTok job anxiety. TikTok employees are worried about the company's recent adjustment to its annual review process. The change is meant to better differentiate between high and low performers, but some staffers fear the harsher reviews and smaller bonuses will drive more employees to leave.

3. The Baltimore bridge disaster will hurt the US economy. The Port of Baltimore has been closed "until further notice" after the Francis Key Scott Bridge collapsed on Tuesday. Experts told BI that the disruption will bring $15 million worth of daily economic activity to a halt.

In other news

• Microsoft's reshuffle continues as Bing chief plans to exit the role. It comes days after Satya Nadella poached Mustafa Suleyman.

• Why investors aren't betting against Trump's Twitter clone — yet.

• Apple's iPhone China shipments in February look even worse than estimated.

• You're going to need a Peacock subscription to watch another NFL game this fall.

What's happening today

• Hunter Biden is set to attend a court hearing to discuss the tax-evasion charges he's facing.

• It's World Theater Day.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. George Glover, reporter, in London.