NCAA Tournament: Scouting USC’s Sweet 16 opponent, the Baylor Bears
LOS ANGELES — With the elation of another milestone only slightly settled, USC senior McKenzie Forbes took to the postgame microphone with a rallying cry, a half hour after top-seeded USC dispatched Kansas on Monday to advance to the Sweet 16.
They were headed to Portland, Oregon, away from the comforts of the Galen Center, where the city of Los Angeles had shown up and shown out in a rocking weekend in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. For months, the team’s message had centered around bringing pride – and crowds – back to Galen. Now was the next step, knowing they’d face programs on the road whose fans traveled in fervor.
“If you can,” Forbes said Monday night, delivering a message to USC fans, “we need you guys in Portland to come get loud for us. Because we’re trying to win some more games.”
Their first matchup in Portland comes against fifth-seeded Baylor (26-7), a program long established as a powerhouse of collegiate women’s basketball. In the years since Kim Mulkey’s tenure in which she won three national titles in 21 seasons before leaving for LSU in 2021 and winning another championship last season, the Bears are fighting to reassert themselves at the top of the mountain, knocking off fourth-seeded Virginia Tech in the second round for their eighth win in their past nine games on their way to the Sweet 16.
Here’s a scouting overview of the Bears before Saturday’s matchup with USC (28-5), which has won seven in a row:
Probable starting lineup
G: SR Sarah Andrews, 5-foot-6, 11.3 ppg, 3.9 apg, 35.7% 3FG. Senior leader, offensive sparkplug as the lead guard.
G: JR Jada Walker, 5-foot-7, 8.2 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.7 spg. Poor shooter but pesky defender and creator.
F: SO Bella Fontleroy, 6-foot-0, 9.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 37% 3FG. Aggressive, switchable 3-and-D stalwart.
F: SR Aijha Blackwell, 5-foot-11, 8.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.2 spg. Plays bigger than her size.
C: SO Darianna Littlepage-Buggs, 6-foot-1, 10.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 53% FG. Undersized but versatile big with shooting touch.
Bench notables
F: SR Dre’Una Edwards, 6-foot-0, 11.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.1 apg. Do-everything sixth-man who’s on a hot shooting streak.
G: SR Jana Van Gytenbeek, 5-foot-6, 4.6 ppg, 2.7 apg, 39.5% 3FG. Leader and steady shooter off the bench.
G: JR Yaya Felder, 5-foot-8, 7.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg. Scoring sparkplug who’s struggled recently.
Last game
In a neck-and-neck matchup, Walker closed out Virginia Tech late, scoring or assisting on all of Baylor’s last 13 points down the stretch. It was a virtuoso performance for Walker, who scored a season-high 28 points, unfazed with two late free throws after Virginia Tech hit a 3-pointer in final seconds to cut Baylor’s lead to one.
“It was working for me down the stretch, I was hitting shots,” Walker said postgame. “I’m glad I was, because I haven’t been, early on in the season. But now, it’s the time where – it’s crunch time. You gotta hit shots in order for us to win.”
Points of strength
Depth: Baylor has had eight different players lead them in scoring in games this season, and their season righted when Edwards – their leading scorer – shifted to the bench in mid-February. Since, the Bears have lost once. Baylor’s rotations make for a difficult defensive game plan, as they can field true threats across the floor 1-through-8.
Defensive activity: The Bears force 18.6 turnovers a game, and will no doubt throw a complex game plan at USC freshman JuJu Watkins, who’s shown improved game management in the NCAA Tournament but has struggled with giveaways all season. Walker is a pest, and Fontleroy and Edwards are strong, switchable defenders with length.
Points of weakness
Size: Any way you slice it, in any possible lineup, USC will have the height advantage Saturday, with 6-foot-4 center Rayah Marshall the tallest starter on the floor. Baylor is a strong rebounding team for being often undersized, but the Trojans also have a burgeoning force off the bench in 6-foot-6 Clarice Akunwafo, who’s averaging 5.5 blocks per game in the NCAA Tournament and figures to get plenty of run.
Rim protection: Goes along with size, but Baylor has no natural shot-blocker on its roster. Fontleroy leads the team at 0.7 blocks a game.
Keys for USC
Go big: Get Marshall going early in the post inside to open up looks on the perimeter. Marshall has found her offensive groove recently, and should look to feast against the Bears.
On guards: Contain Baylor’s backcourt. Watkins and guard Kayla Padilla will have their hands full chasing Andrews and Walker. Backup point guard Kayla Williams, a ball-pressuring tempo-changer, could play key minutes Saturday.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16: USC vs. Baylor
When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
TV/radio: ESPN/790 AM