Fox News Poll: Record number say abortion should be legal
Nearly two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a record number of voters think abortion should be legal, with two-thirds favoring nationwide law guaranteeing access, according to a Fox News national survey.
Fifty-nine percent think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, up from the previous high of 57% in September 2022 and a record low of 44% in April 2022.
Support for legalization is up (mostly by double-digits) across the board since April 2022, two months before Roe was overturned. That includes increased support among voters ages 65 and older (+16 points should be legal), conservatives (+12), Republicans (+11), and White evangelical Christians (+10).
Overall, just 7% think abortion should never be permitted, while five times as many say it always should be (35%). Another one-third (32%) say abortion should be illegal except in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother.
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When asked about possible bans on abortions except for medical emergencies, opinions vary depending upon the timing of the procedure.
By a 20-point margin, voters oppose a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy (58% oppose vs. 38% in favor). That’s up from an 8-point margin opposing a six-week ban in 2023 and a 4-point margin in favor of the ban in 2022.
Voters oppose a 15-week ban by 11 points (54% oppose vs. 43% favor), which is in direct contrast with results in 2023 when it was favored by 12 points (42% oppose vs. 54% favor) and in 2022 when it was favored by 13 points (41% vs. 54%).
While the change in views on 6-week and 15-week bans look like genuine movement, it cannot be ruled out that minor edits to question wording and ordering made a difference.
This movement is not just among Democrats. Since 2022, Republicans are also more likely to oppose the 6-week (+12 points) and 15-week (+10) bans. Still, majorities of Republicans favor a ban in both instances.
"Sometimes you have to be careful about what you wish for," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Opinions on abortion are hard to move, but they have shifted slightly to the left in the past two years. Whatever the substantive legal and policy merits of the Court’s ruling in the Dobbs case, overturning Roe has given the Democrats a rallying point in an otherwise bleak issue environment."
Last week, former President Donald Trump indicated in a radio interview that he would support a 15-week abortion ban.
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When asked about a 24-week ban, however, voters split: 48% oppose vs. 48% favor. Over half of Republicans (58%) and independents (52%) favor the 24-week ban while over half of Democrats oppose it (59%). This was the first time the 24-week question was included on the survey.
Two-thirds support a nationwide law guaranteeing access to legal abortion (65%). Most Democrats (89%) and two-thirds (65%) of independents favor a national law, while just over half of Republicans are against it (53%).
On Tuesday, the Supreme Court heard an abortion case on whether to limit access to the FDA-approved abortion medication Mifepristone, which can be prescribed to end a pregnancy up to 10 weeks after conception. Last April, the high court allowed full access to the drug while the current case made its way through the lower courts.
The poll, released Wednesday, shows 68% of voters favor legalizing Mifepristone, up a touch from 65% a year ago (April 2023). Almost 9 in 10 Democrats (87%) and 7 in 10 independents (71%) support it, while Republicans are split (48% legal vs. 46% illegal).
Overall, just under 3 in 10 say it should not be permitted (28%).
The poll was conducted entirely before the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the Mifepristone case. A ruling is expected in June or July.
Looking ahead to 2024
Abortion rights is expected to be hotly debated on the 2024 campaign trail, yet in a list of 7 issues, voters rank abortion 5th, with 41% saying it will be extremely important to their vote. The economy (61%), election integrity (53%), immigration (48%), and health care (46%) rank higher. Foreign policy (38%) and climate change (30%) rank the lowest.
Abortion ranks at the top for Democrats with 58% saying it’s extremely important followed closely by health care at 57%. The economy is the top issue for Republicans (70%) and independents (65%).
By a 12-point margin, registered voters think President Joe Biden would better handle the abortion issue over Trump. Democrats trust Biden more on abortion by 85 points and independents trust him more by 20.
"While abortion is not a top voting issue for many, it could become pivotal in some swing states where there are likely to be abortion-related ballot questions," says Anderson. "The potential of losing abortion rights or the opportunity to enshrine them in a particular state has the potential to change turnout patterns in ways that would likely help Democratic candidates."
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Conducted March 22-25, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,094 registered voters (RV) nationwide randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (122) and cellphones (717) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (255). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.