Popularity of Brazil’s Congress jumps amid penal populism push

A new Datafolha poll with Brazilian voters shows a spike in Congress’s popularity. Those who deem lawmakers are performing a good or great job jumped from 16 percent in February to 22 percent now. It is the highest approval rate since 2010.

In the same span, rejection of congressional work dipped from 33 to 23 percent.

It can be hard to pinpoint specific reasons for rapid voter mood swings, especially since Datafolha did not disclose data for each populational cohort. But one clue lies in a recent drive for tough-on-crime legislation in both the House and Senate. 

Congress recently passed legislation toughening furlough benefits for convicted felons, and a new drug act that brings back the war on drugs logic of the 1990s is moving through the Senate. The Supreme Court recently began debating on whether to decriminalize marijuana possession — sparking a reaction from the conservative caucus in Congress. 

According to Datafolha, 67 percent of Brazilians oppose decriminalization — up from 61 percent in September 2023. Anti-drug belief grows with age: it reaches 72 percent among voters aged 60-plus, but drops to 55 percent among those aged 16 to 24.

Multiple polls have flagged that public security has become voters’ main concern, topping economic issues. Quaest, another pollster, showed this week that 79 percent of voters believe that violence has gotten worse in Brazil over the past 12 months. This perception is higher among women and higher-income groups.

Moreover, 83 percent believe that organized crime has grown stronger. For 50 percent, the government has done its share to help solve the problem.

The findings come as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s popularity is skidding — even though the economy grew in 2023, the job market has recovered, and salaries are going up (if only slightly). The government’s new popularity problems suggest a shift in the public debate, as culture-war issues play a major role in shaping public opinion — with public safety issues being a perfect example of this dynamic.

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