3 best MLB future props from pro bettors on Opening Day

It seems like spring training was just starting, but somehow Opening Day for the 2024 Major League Baseball season is already here. There are more markets than ever to wager on, so it’s important to be selective and do your research.

Futures bets can be a fun way to root for a team, because you essentially have action on them for 162 games. Professional bettors don’t like season-long wagers as much because they involve tying up money for six months when that could be used on a daily basis, but that’s less of a concern for casual bettors.

For The Win asked a few bettors to give their favorite MLB futures plays:

Oakland A’s Over 57.5 wins

This is a classic example of books knowing that nobody wants to bet on the A’s and getting too cute with it.  Sure, the Athletics are terrible, but this number implies they are the worst in baseball by a large margin, which is unlikely. Just about every public projection system (including mine, THE BAT X) sees them as more like the third- or fourth-worst team and easily eclipsing 60 wins. THE BAT X has them a full 10 wins higher.  Hold your nose — it’s gross — but these are usually the bets that have the most value.  Ask anyone who took THE BAT X’s advice and bet the over on the Reds, Marlins, or Pirates last year. – Derek Carty, THE BAT X/RotoWorld

New York Yankees Under 91.5 wins

The Yankees are always a touch overvalued in the betting market and this year feels the same, especially after they landed Juan Soto in the offseason. Soto is one of the best players in the game and should top the career-high 35 home runs he hit with the San Diego Padres last season. He and Aaron Judge back-to-back in New York’s lineup will no doubt leave starting pitchers shook.

The Yankees’ offense looks great on paper, but can this team stay healthy and pick up the slack for Gerrit Cole? The Yankees put 28 players on the injured list last season, which was the sixth most in baseball and the madness has already begun. Not having leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu for the start of the season isn’t a big deal, but Cole is expected to be sidelined until at least the end of May or early June. He isn’t eligible to return until May 27, after the Yankees placed him on the 60-day IL due to an elbow injury. The rotation was already thin with health concerns stemming from last year.

Cole is optimistic he’ll pitch again this season and hopefully we see him because the game is better when he’s on the mound. Unfortunately, setbacks happen and you have to wonder how effective he’ll be when he’s ready to pitch. Cole’s 27% K-Rate last season was his lowest mark in six seasons.

New York ranked 24th in team wOBA (.304) and 19th in wRC+ (94) in 2023, so they’ll welcome Soto with open arms. Judge was fantastic, but he was limited to 106 games. The former AL MVP has missed time due to oblique and abdomen injuries, but maybe more concerning than that was the fact he was absent for 42 games after tearing a ligament in his toe — an injury that Judge has said will require “constant maintenance” for the rest of his career.

Anthony Rizzo is expected to hit in the cleanup spot and he’s coming off a season where he only hit 12 home runs while striking out 23 percent of the time. Those numbers – along with his .134 ISO and 28.9% strikeout rate – were totals we hadn’t seen from him since his rookie campaign in 2011. Rizzo is a career .263 hitter, but his averages in three of the last four seasons are .244, .224 and .222. The 34-year-old was sidelined for 63 games last season and recently downplayed a lat injury he said he’s been dealing with for the last 12 years. Giancarlo Stanton could fill in for Rizzo if needed, and he still has 25-30 home run potential but he’s watched 110 games from the dugout over the last two seasons.

Staying healthy is one thing, but competing inside a tough AL East division is another. The Baltimore Orioles rattled off 101 wins last season and all they did was land ace Corbin Burnes. They’re for real. The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays both had more wins than New York’s 82. To hit 92 wins is a lot to ask and the injury to Cole may be too much for them to overcome. — Chris Meaney, writer at FTN Network.

Texas Rangers over 88.5 wins

The Texas Rangers racked up 90 wins last season en route to their first World Series title in franchise history. They led the American League in wOBA (.340), runs (881), ISO (.190), OBP (.337), SLG (.452) and home runs (233). All signs point to their offense being just as good if not better in 2024.

The Rangers will open up the season with two of the top prospects in the game. Wyatt Langford has moved from 20-1 to the betting favorite (+240) to win American League Rookie of the Year. The fourth overall pick from 2023 quickly moved from Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A last season, and he almost made the World Series roster. His upside has been on full display throughout spring training as he hit six homers, drove in 20 runs and scored 14 times through his first 67 plate appearances (.350 AVG).

Langford joins rookie favorite runner-up Evan Carter who only played 23 games in the regular season in 2023, but carried his strong play over into the postseason. Carter hit five home runs and finished with a .306/.413/.645 slash line over 75 plate appearances in the regular season. He went on to hit .300 in 17 playoff games and he played himself up the lineup.

Josh Jung is another great young bat who was leading the AL Rookie of the Year race last season before suffering an injury. These three rising superstars, along with Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, should be enough to give Texas a chance to repeat.

The rotation isn’t the strongest, but the offense should carry them until Max Scherzer returns around June. Jacob deGrom is also expected to return by August as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Keep in mind the Rangers played without both for most of last season, so having them in the second half could be a big boost. One other thing to keep in mind is that management has been very aggressive over the past couple of seasons. They’ll add at the deadline like last season if needed. — Meaney