Mercedes’ problems go beyond ‘physics,’ but can they solve them in time to salvage 2024?

After a slow start, can Mercedes turn things around?

We are three races into the Formula 1 season.

While much remains the same from 2024 — Red Bull is leading the Constructors’ Championship and Max Verstappen is atop the Drivers’ standings — recent events have shaken the field up a bit. Mercedes is floundering, McLaren is strong, and Ferrari has certainly closed the gap to Red Bull.

Then there is a fascinating fight shaping up in the midfield, one that has Visa Cash App RB F1 Team in front at the moment thanks to a strong drive from Yuki Tsunoda in the Australian Grand Prix.

With so much on the line, and a short break until the Japanese Grand Prix, this is a good time to take stock of where each team stands at the moment. But rather than a simple review, we’ll look at the biggest question facing each team right now.

Earlier this week we took a look at Alpine, asking how quickly progress will come for a team desperately needing a step forward. We also asked whether Sauber can fix a pit stop issue that has plagued them in each of the season’s first three races.

On Wednesday we asked whether Williams would be facing a hangover after everything they went through in Australia, whether Haas had truly eliminated their biggest gremlin from last season and yes, just how hot the seat really is under Daniel Ricciardo.

We started Thursday with a look at Aston Martin. Now we turn to their power unit supplier, Mercedes. The Silver Arrows are coming off a brutal Australian Grand Prix, and currently sit fourth in the Constructors’ Standings, with 26 points on the season. The gap to Alpine in last place? 26 points. The gap to McLaren in third? 29 points.

Meanwhile Red Bull sits 71 points clear of Mercedes.

Sure it is early, but is it already too late?

Mercedes: Can they turn things around ... again?

Down Under was a disaster for Mercedes.

Lewis Hamilton, who expressed a lack of confidence in the W15 following some setup changes the team made ahead of the second practice session, did not see the checkered flag on Sunday, as he car suffered a failure on Lap 17. The team’s hopes for salvaging anything from Melbourne came down to George Russell, who in the closing stages of the race was chasing down Fernando Alonso for sixth place.

But when Alonso tried something ... let’s say unexpected at Turn 6 on the penultimate lap Russell was suddenly in some dirty air, and then the gravel, and then on his side right in the middle of the track. While Alonso was eventually hit with a penalty for his maneuver, that came as little solace for Mercedes, who left Australia without anything to show for their efforts.

Other than frustration.

“We started this season in the belief that this car was better than last year,” said Team Principal Toto Wolff to Sky Sports F1 following the Australian Grand Prix. “Then you look at last year [in Australia] where Leclerc crashed out and Sainz was fourth on the road, McLaren were 17th, 18th or 19th and now they are 40 seconds ahead of us.

“On one side, I want to punch myself on the nose. On the other side, it’s a testimony that when you get things right, you can turn it around pretty quickly and continue to believe.

“At the moment, it’s a very tough time.”

Wolff even conceded it was “fair” to question his role with the team, given the lack of success these past few seasons. After the memorable 2021 F1 campaign, which saw the fight between Hamilton and Max Verstappen come down to the final lap of the season, things have taken a negative turn for the team. While Mercedes still won the Constructors’ Championship in 2021, they finished third in 2022, and second a season ago.

They have just one win, Russell’s victory in Brazil at the end of 2022, over that period of time.

“I look myself in the mirror every single day about everything I do, and if I believe that I should ask the manager question or the trainer question, I think it’s a fair question, but it’s not what I feel at the moment that I should do,” said Wolff when asked by Sky Sports F1 about his role with the team.

“As a corner of this business, I need to be sure that my contribution is positive and creative,” Wolff added. “I would be the first one to say, if someone has a better idea, tell me, because I’m interested to turn this team around as quickly as possible. And I’ll happily give my input and see what that would be or who that could be.

“We have a physics problem, not a philosophical or organisational problem. We haven’t swallowed a dumb pill since 2021. It’s just we don’t understand some of the behaviours of the car, that in the past we would have always understood,” added the Mercedes boss.

All of that is reasonable, and Mercedes has solved some “physics” problems before. The 2022 season began with the ill-fated “zeropod” design on the W13, and while the team got off to a similarly-slow start that year — they were third in the Constructors’ Championship after four races, 47 points behind first-place Ferrari and 36 points behind second-place Red Bull — they were able to iron out some upgrades to their 2022 challenger during the European portion of the schedule, allowing them to close the gap to Ferrari and deliver Russell’s win in São Paulo.

But this season goes beyond physics.

The team is facing the imminent departure of Hamilton, thanks to the sport-shifting announcement ahead of the season that the seven-time champion would be driving for Ferrari next season. That is an added layer of pressure to the situation that is rarely seen in the sport. Sure, there have been massive moves in the sport before, but perhaps none like Hamilton’s shock move, when you consider his status in the sport and the timing.

Consider some of the other stunning moves in F1 history. Kimi Räikkönen surprised the F1 world with an announcement he was leaving McLaren for Ferrari for the 2007 season, but that announcement came at the 2006 Italian Grand Prix, the 15th of 18 grands prix that year. Sebastian Vettel’s announcement he was leaving Red Bull for Ferrari for the 2015 season came in October of 2014.

Perhaps the closest parallel comes from Alonso himself, when it was announced in December of 2005 — after he had won his first Drivers’ title — that he was leaving Renault for McLaren, and would driver for McLaren starting in 2007.

Alonso still won a second-straight title for Renault in 2006.

Hamilton looks light-years away from a title this season.

Perhaps the team can solve the physics with the W15, and give Russell and Hamilton a car capable of wins and podiums. After all, they have solved the physics before, and the W15 offers a stronger starting point than say the W13, with its zeropod configuration. It should be easier — and quicker — for the team to solve this riddle than it was back in 2022.

But again, that is just part of the story.

Accomplishing that, while handling the impending departure of the best driver in their history, is another task altogether.