Examining the stability and change in age-crime relation in South Korea, 1980–2019: An age-period-cohort analysis

by Yunmei Lu

The aggregate-level age-crime distributions in Western countries are predominantly right-skewed and adolescent-spiked. Based on Western data, Hirschi and Gottfredson (1983) asserted that this age-crime pattern is universally invariant across time and places. This study’s overall goal is to rigorously examine Hirschi and Gottfredson’s invariant premise within a non-Western country, focusing on the stability and change in the age-crime patterns of South Korea from 1980 to 2019. Specifically, two research questions are addressed: (1) whether the average age-arrest curves in South Korea diverge from the invariant premise after adjusting for period and cohort effects; (2) how period and cohort effects modify the age-arrest curves. To examine these questions, I applied the age-period-cohort-interaction model (APC-I) to analyze the official age-specific arrest statistics for various offense types from 1980 to 2019 in South Korea. Findings suggested that the age-crime patterns of homicide, assault, and fraud are characterized by spread-out distributions and advanced peak ages. After adjusting for period and cohort effects, most of the age-crime curves are still robustly divergent from the age-crime distributions found in Western countries. Cohort and period effects have modified the age-crime patterns, but arrests in South Korea are largely concentrated among midlife age groups older than 30. These results provide additional compelling evidence contesting Hirschi and Gottfredson’s invariance thesis, underscoring the substantial impact of country-specific processes, historical context, and cultural factors on the age-crime relationship.