Odds and predictions for Iowa-LSU rematch in the women's Elite Eight

The similarities between the 2023 women’s national championship game and the upcoming rematch between LSU and Iowa in the Elite Eight are glaring.

Both teams are seeded the same as they were in last year’s tournament, with LSU a 3-seed and Iowa a 2-seed. The spread is the same as it was last year, when Iowa was favored by 1.5 points. Even the cast of characters is similar, from head coaches Kim Mulkey and Lisa Bluder to stars Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark.

That just leaves one question: will the result will be different for Iowa, which lost 102-85 despite a game-high 30 points for Clark?

IOWA vs. LSU ODDS ARE LIVE

Caitlin Clark & Iowa are currently -1.5-point favorites vs. Angel Reese & LSU pic.twitter.com/EG0b2qrXAm

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) March 31, 2024

It certainly has the potential to be. Iowa returns three starters from last year’s loss (including the best player in college basketball), while LSU is practically a new team outside of Reese and guard Flau’je Johnson. The Tigers’ three leading scorers from the 2023 title game are all gone.

However, where there’s hope for LSU is in Mulkey’s ability to scheme another winning gameplan and the potential impact of transfers Aneesah Morrow and Hailey Van Lith — who scored 27 for Louisville against Iowa in last year’s Elite Eight. Despite LSU and Iowa’s different paths back to this point, they ended up right back in the way of one another, holding the second and third best odds to win the 2024 national title. So, Monday’s game is truly a toss up.

National Championship odds (BetMGM)

• South Carolina (-250)
• Iowa (+550)
• LSU (+650)
• UConn (+1200)
• NC State (+1800)
• USC (+2000)

Because it can go either way, my favorite bet is on the total, which I favor to go over the 168.5-point line. Both teams rank top 20 in possessions per 40 minutes and points per 100 possessions, and though LSU prefers to not shoot threes, Iowa’s tendency to let it fly from deep could necessitate more attempts from the Tigers.

If the Tigers hit their threes, they’ll roll just like they did last year when the team made 11-of-17 attempts to counter Iowa’s 13 made threes. However, this team doesn’t shoot it as well, so I expect a much closer contest. Ultimately, I’ll still roll with with LSU to prevail because the Tigers have several players who can create their own shots in a close game, and they defend at a high level. Getting plus moneyline odds in a game this close doesn’t hurt either.

Pick: Over 168.5, LSU ML