April Mortgage Rates Will Be Stuck in Neutral as Inflation Idles

This article was first published on NerdWallet.com.

April mortgage rate forecast

Mortgage rates shouldn’t change much in April, as inflation remains stubbornly elevated.

The inflation rate has been falling since October 2022, but progress has felt as maddeningly slow as the driver who doesn’t notice when the light turns green. Inflation's decline is likely to continue its glacial pace in April. Mortgage rates are influenced by the inflation rate, so if they move much in April, they're more likely to fall than to rise. Either way, the change probably won't be by much.

A tentative tone from the Fed

Mortgage rates wandered up and down in March, without consistent direction. That trajectory matched the month's economic data, which didn't have a coherent story to tell. The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee kept short-term rates unchanged at the March meeting and set a wishy-washy tone about the future.

"Inflation has eased substantially while the labor market has remained strong,...