After Taiwan, experts say Portland could not handle a major earthquake

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – The strongest earthquake in a quarter century hit Taiwan early Wednesday morning as commuters were making their way to work and school, killing nine and injuring more than 1,000 people.

Oregon may be several thousand miles away, but earthquake news can make a Portlander wonder: What if it happened here? Experts have bad news. Portland, with its older buildings and bridges, is simply not prepared.

The Bureau of Development Services estimates Portland has more than 1,600 unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings. These buildings pose a major risk of crumbling during an earthquake due to the materials used to make them.

PSU Professor of Geology Dr. Scott Burns said city and school buildings are among the most vulnerable.

"The city knows that, but they have a limited budget and so they're slowly taking care of it a little bit each year,” Burns said. "We have a long way to go in a short period of time."

Since the ‘90s, Portland has been trying to identify the buildings that are at risk. Since then, up to 20% have been at least partially retrofitted.

"We have requirements in city code for upgrading unreinforced masonry buildings when certain conditions are met, such that, let's say a building wants to change its occupancy from office use to retail or office to residential ... seismic retrofit requirements can kick in then,” Ken Ray with the Portland Bureau of Development Services said.

Bridges pose another major concern for the city. According to Burns, “If we had a 9.0 [magnitude earthquake], people could not get from one side of the river to the side of the river.”

Multnomah County said they plan to replace the Burnside Bridge with one that can withstand a major earthquake with a six-year project starting in 2026.

Jan. 26, 2024, marked the 324th anniversary of the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake — a massive 9-magnitude earthquake spanning Northern California to British Columbia. 

As pressure builds between the Juan de Fuca plate and the North American Plate, Oregon’s Office of Emergency Management says there’s about a 37% chance of a megathrust earthquake in the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the next 50 years.

The office warns “With the current preparedness levels of Oregon, we can anticipate being without services and assistance for at least two weeks, if not longer, when the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake occurs.”

Read the City of Portland's list of Unreinforced Masonry Buildings below: