NBA playoff make/miss odds and predictions for 11 teams on the play-in tournament fringe

With less than two weeks to go in the NBA regular season, two of the eight play-in tournament spots are locked up — both in the Eastern Conference.

Those teams, the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks, are no longer at risk of falling below the 10th seed in the East, but they can no longer move up past the seventh seed either. The Golden State Warriors could be the next team to join them as play-in tournament bound soon.

As for the remaining five spots, there’s no less than eight teams fighting to stay out of them, clawing for a top-six seed to lock-in their playoff berths sooner than later. Regardless of where they land when the music stops, the best teams playing the best ball at the end should find a way to get in.

Let’s take a look at each of these fringe playoff teams and try to predict which ones will make and miss the playoffs. Teams are listed by their current place in the standings, with how many games behind the sixth seed noted.

Eastern Conference

6. Miami Heat (42-33)

Tied with Indiana, the Heat need a strong finish to avoid the play-in tournament. Unlike last season, I believe they’ll do just that. But as we saw with last year’s NBA Finals run, the Heat are a threat to go a deep run no matter how they qualify.

Pick: Make

Odds: Make -2500, Miss +1000 (DraftKings)

7. Indiana Pacers (0 GB)

The Pacers have been very inconsistent down the stretch, as demonstrated by their last loss to the Brooklyn Nets. So, I’m not confident they avoid the play-in tournament, where they could possibly play the Philadelphia 76ers. I’ll reluctantly take Indiana to get in — even if it takes a second play-in game — but if there was a team to take a swing on its odds to miss, this would be the one.

Pick: Make

Odds: Make -900, Miss +550 (DraftKings)

8. Philadelphia 76ers (1.5 GB)

With Joel Embiid back, I think the 76ers have enough to get into the playoffs over the remaining play-in bound teams — even if I don’t believe his return to be enough for them to go on a deep playoff run.

Pick: Make

Odds: Make -1100, Miss +600 (DraftKings)

9. Chicago Bulls (play-in)

The Bulls are weird in that they’re technically the worst team in this field, but I think they can beat the Hawks in their likely first-round play-in tournament clash. The problem is I think the Hawks have a better chance of beating whoever the winner would face in the second play-in game.

Pick: Miss

Odds: Make +390, Miss -550 (FanDuel)

10. Atlanta Hawks (play-in)

As I mentioned above, I would give the Hawks a better than zero chance to advance out of the play-in tournament if they were first able to get past the Bulls — who won two of three meetings this season. Even without Trae Young, the Hawks have found a better rhythm down the stretch, so they’d be the team I take a chance on between the two. But ultimately I think they both fall short.

Pick: Miss

Odds: Make +470, Miss -700 (FanDuel)

Western Conference

5. Dallas Mavericks (45-30)

Luka Doncic is on an MVP-caliber tear right now, helping lift Dallas to an 11-2 record in its last 13 games. The Mavericks aren’t missing the playoffs.

Pick: Make

Odds: Make -10000, Miss +1200 (DraftKings)

6. Phoenix Suns (45-31)

The Suns have the NBA’s toughest remaining schedule, with all six teams left to play currently favored to make the playoffs — including two games against the No. 1 seed Minnesota Timberwolves and two games against the No. 4 LA Clippers. But while there’s no guarantee they avoid the play-in tourney, I do think they’d advance in just one game. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker wouldn’t need more.

Pick: Make

Odds: Make -750, Miss +490 (FanDuel)

7. New Orleans Pelicans (0 GB)

Though the Pelicans technically have the easiest remaining schedule of these teams below the sixth seed, four of their six remaining games are against the desperate teams also on this list — and New Orleans might be playing the worst ball of them all right now. I think they end up in seventh or eighth and lose out to miss the playoffs again.

Pick: Miss

Odds: Make -520, Miss +370 (FanDuel)

8. Sacramento Kings (0.5 GB)

Injuries hit Sacramento at just the worst time possible, with Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter both likely out through the play-in tournament. That’s why I think the Lakers ultimately pass the Kings for eighth place and force them into a single-elimination game with the Warriors — a game the Kings will lose. If they’re able to hold on to No. 8, that only strengthens New Orleans’ chances to get in.

Pick: Miss

Odds: Make -160, Miss +130 (FanDuel)

9. Los Angeles Lakers (1.5 GB)

The Lakers sure do know how to turn it on when they need to the most. Suddenly, they have a chance to get out of the bottom two of the play-in tournament, and for all the reasons I outlined above, I think they will. But even if they have to scrap for the playoffs from the nine-seed, they’re playing good enough ball to make it happen. I would take LA over Golden State.

Pick: Make

Odds: Make -118, Miss -104 (FanDuel)

10. Golden State Warriors (3.5 GB)

As you can tell by my picks above, I have Golden State getting in. And I promise I’m not just picking the Lakers and Warriors simply because I want these legacy teams in the playoffs. This is just truly how I see it playing out based on how these teams have performed lately. The Warriors are on a league-best five-game winning streak. Both making it obviously can’t happen if the Lakers don’t climb out of ninth place first, but I think they will. From there, the Warriors will take care of business against whoever they face.

Pick: Make

Odds: Make +235, Miss -300 (FanDuel)