Alec Marsh is throwing similarly to 2023, but the mix is way different

Sometimes it isn’t about better stuff, but rather about command and keeping batters off-balance

Alec Marsh making the rotation may have been one of the most exciting developments of spring training. It meant that Jordan Lyles was no longer good enough to be in the top five starters after being depended on for the entirety of 2023 despite his repeated struggles. The first Marsh start is now in the books, and it was a fantastic result against one of the best teams in baseball. Naturally, that means I had to dig through his stats and see what looked different than what we saw last year.

There seems to be only one large change for Marsh, and that is his pitch mix. Last year he threw six different pitches. Now he is only throwing five with the curve ball, that he threw 15% of the time last year, getting the axe. Since he is not throwing those, the other ones would likely be thrown more, and that is mostly true. The exception is that his four-seam fastball was also used way less than it was last year. In 2023 the four-seamer was his go to pitch at 37.3% of pitches thrown. Against Baltimore he went to it less than a quarter of the time.

Two pitches lost a combined almost 30% of usage from last year. That is a HUGE difference. The pitch that picked up most of that was the changeup, which was thrown 10.1% more relative to last season. Next was the sweeper being thrown at a rate 7.9% higher than last season. Finally, the usage of the slider and sinker went up by 5.9% and 6% respectively.

Looking at all of this pitches, there are no large changes to their movement or velocities. Small samples make the deviations uncertain at this point however. The sweeper might be a bit slower and has the one change, vertical break, that is enough to say it is probably moving differently than last year. All the others look similar to 2023 in almost every aspect. His stuff, according to Pitching Bot was not really better than last year, 49 versus 47 on the 20-80 scale. The command was way better though, going from 41 to 59! In that scale, 60 is plus and 55 is above average, so his command was a couple ticks better than average.

Really good command plus average stuff plus five average or slightly better pitches could be a recipe for success. It is one start, so I cannot tell you what expectations should be yet. Is he an ace? Almost certainly not, but a number three starter is now at least in play. Even if he is just a competent 5th starter, that adds depth to a much better rotation from a season ago.