2024 NCAA Final Four: Can NC State Beat Purdue?

It won’t be easy, but there’s an argument for State.

NC State faces off against Purdue on Saturday and that is going to be really interesting.

The Wolfpack has really united late in the season and is playing as well as a team, as a united group, as anyone. But obviously Purdue presents a major challenge in Zach Edey: how do you attack him?

Edey is seven inches taller than NC State’s dancing bear, DJ Burns, and may outweigh him. State lists Burns at 275 but that just...it seems pretty light.

Zion Williamson is 6-6 and 284, or at least was for most of his career. He may be less than that now.

That’s just a point of comparison - Burns is probably closer to 300 and maybe more than that. He’s far more nimble than Edey is, but he’s probably not going to be able to push him around in the post. For one thing, Edey is in really good condition, as he showed against Tennessee last weekend.

For another, he’s just massive.

But consider these points about Edey and Purdue.

Against Tennessee, Purdue shot 45.3 percent from the floor and 3-15 from behind the line.

Edey was 13-21 from the floor and got to the line a staggering 22 times, hitting 14 of those.

The rest of the team made just 11 shots and hit just 34.3 percent of their shots.

Rick Barnes coaches an unbelievably physical style, as Duke fans are well aware and of course Edey presents unique challenges. But 22 foul shots?

State can’t afford that. Their big guys have flirted with foul trouble the entire post-season and Edey could make that much worse.

But there is still hope.

First a bit more on Edey. We are in the skeptical camp about him to an extent but only a fool would just write off his success as being just because he’s so big. He is huge of course, but the guy has put in the work and he has improved dramatically year over year. His skills have really improved. But he’s not perfect.

First, he lacks foot speed. That’s improved too, but there’s a limit and he’s probably near it. Look at some other big guys. We can start with UConn’s Donovan Clingan, who can run the court pretty well. In the NBA, consider Chet Holmgren. Kristaps Porzingis moves fairly well.

The most comparable big guy in terms of foot speed is probably Nikola Jokic, but he’s a savant passer and when you can move the ball in a way no one else can imagine, your foot speed isn’t very important.

It hasn’t mattered yet, but Edey hasn’t needed to fully extend on his shots. It won’t matter in this Final Four unless perhaps Clingan can get to his shot and we’ll know about that if both teams are fortunate enough to advance.

For Burns, Jokic is a reasonable comparison. He is never going to be a fast player but he has great footwork.

He’s also a brilliant passer and we’re not sure Edey has the hand speed to react to that.

Here’s something else about Edey that’s a bit surprising: despite the immense advantage his size gives him, he’s only shooting 62.4 percent.

Not surprisingly, when you look at his shot chart, virtually every attempt is at the basket.

Even against Grambling, he shot just 11-17. Against Utah State? 8-11. Against Gonzaga? 10-15.

Now to be sure, those are not horrible numbers, but given his size advantage, you’d think they’d be higher.

Bill Russell was asked once about how he dealt with the massive Wilt Chamberlain. Russell said he tried to push him just a little outside of his normal shooting range, realizing that if he could make Chamberlain less efficient, he would give his team a better chance to win.

We’re not sure if you can push Edey out much, but if State can do that it would help a lot. Drawing fouls would obviously help too. Burns might draw a few on his

And of course the other thing is that his teammates have to get him the ball. State’s perimeter defense has been terrific. Braeden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are good but not great guards. We think State has the advantage there. If they can force turnovers, Edey will be out of the picture. Unlike Clingan, he cannot catch up in the open court.

Finally, there is the Len Bias option: when Duke faced against the late, great Bias, Mike Krzyzewski conceded that he could not be stopped. So Duke tried to stop his teammates. It worked out pretty well.

Thing is, for all the ink about how Burns and Edey will square off, we’re not sure they will very much. Our guess is that Mohamed Diarra will get Edey, at least in the beginning, backed up by Ben Middlebrooks.

When we started thinking about this game, we thought, well, that’s it for State. No way they’re beating Purdue.

After looking at it though, we can see a path for the Pack. It’s narrow, but it’s doable.