Netanyahu’s war is lost. It's time to save any chance for peace.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claims “total victory” over Hamas is within reach, but the demonstrators in Israel’s streets signal the truth: Netanyahu has lost his war in Gaza. The vital question for Israel and the U.S. is whether peace can still be salvaged from the catastrophe Netanyahu has made. 

Netanyahu’s war was lost months ago. Initially, Israel and the world were united in outrage over Hamas’s brutal Oct. 7 murders of Israeli civilians in their homes, at a music festival and otherwise going about daily life. There was no doubt Hamas had earned retribution, but the Netanyahu government’s military response in Gaza seems to have mirrored Hamas's brutality toward civilians.  

As the evidence of that brutality grew and the death toll mounted past 30,000 deaths in Gaza, global outrage steadily shifted from Hamas’s Oct. 7 atrocities and holding of hostages to Israel’s leveling of neighborhoods and towns in Gaza and the deaths of entire Palestinian families from seemingly unconstrained attacks. 

Monday's attack by Israeli forces that killed seven humanitarian aid workers from World Central Kitchen, a group that closely coordinated its activities in Gaza with Israeli forces, is the most recent demonstration that the Israeli military is not, despite its claims, taking every precaution to ensure its attacks are carefully targeted on Hamas. As the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported, the World Central Kitchen’s well-marked convoy was hit by three separate missile attacks.

There is no doubt Hamas has been hiding among civilians and is most likely committing war crimes in doing so. Similarly, there can be no doubt that Israel has prioritized attacking Hamas over protecting innocent civilians. 

There is a price to be paid for the level of brutality Israeli forces have inflicted on Gaza. Images of seemingly wanton destruction, reports of starvation deaths and the growing risk of famine and the roadblocks Israel creates for humanitarian groups, the United Nations and even its own allies to bring in lifesaving supplies have created the narrative that Israel, not Hamas, is the problem in Gaza. 

Former Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said on Tuesday that Israel’s actions could cause it to face “international ostracism.” That is how a war is lost in today’s world.   

What happens in Rafah is going to reverberate in Israel’s relations with the U.S., Europe and the Arab world. If Netanyahu and his extremist cabinet ministers have their way and Israeli forces blast into Rafah the way they have elsewhere in Gaza, Israel’s reputational losses will be compounded. There will also be a cost to the U.S., regional stability and Israel’s hopes of normalizing relations with the Gulf Arabs. 

If, on the other hand, the Israeli military works with humanitarian groups and international donors to move civilians from Rafah to parts of Gaza with adequate temporary shelters, food, water and medical support, and only then follows with precision attacks on Hamas military units in Rafah, it may be possible to start building a bridge from the war with Hamas to a long-term regional peace. 

For anything positive to come out of Rafah, the U.S. must show more firmness in its dealings with the Netanyahu government than it has to date. Israeli and U.S. officials met virtually on Monday to discuss U.S. concerns about an Israeli invasion of the city and the need to protect civilians there. There was apparently no agreement except to meet again to continue the discussion. 

There is too much at stake for the Biden administration to agree to disagree with Netanyahu on Rafah. Biden and the U.S. have skin in the game. An Israeli attack on Rafah that produces mass casualties will hurt Biden at home and undermine U.S. interests globally, not just in the Middle East. It would also block Biden’s goal of a U.S.-led regional negotiation for a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian issue and dangerously isolate Israel, regionally and globally. 

Netanyahu has a weak hand. He is confronting demonstrations at home and strains in Israel’s regional relationships. His conduct in the Gaza war has damaged Israel’s political standing in the U.S. and Europe. He has become a transitional figure, tainted by his failures that led to Oct. 7 and the brutal Israeli military campaign that followed. Israeli opinion polls show Israelis want elections and Netanyahu gone.

The Biden administration needs to draw some red lines with Netanyahu on the Rafah endgame. For example, there is no reason to rush supplies of large dumb bombs to Israel; there is every reason to require that humanitarian supplies flow into Gaza in the amounts required to meet the needs of displaced Gazans. There is good reason to supply equipment to support a carefully focused attack on priority Hamas targets in Gaza, but only if those attacks occur after civilians are moved out of harm’s way. 

U.S. officials have consistently said the U.S. supports Israel’s right to defend itself. But Israel’s military campaign in Gaza stopped being about self-defense and became about vengeance months ago. 

The U.S. has more than met its obligations to an ally. It is time to exercise some tough love to help Israel get out of the hole that Netanyahu wants to continue digging in Gaza — and keep alive the possibility of a longer-term peace negotiation.

Ken Brill is a retired foreign service officer who served as an ambassador in the Clinton and Bush administrations.