2024 ACM Awards preview: How will Morgan Wallen, Luke Combs, Chris Stapleton and other big stars fare?

The Academy of Country Music Awards are coming up before too long, and with them will come a new set of nominees that might range from critical darlings to radio blockbusters.

This year Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs will likely have great showings after the success of their respective albums “One Thing at a Time” and “Gettin’ Old.” The former ended up as 2023’s biggest album and to this day remains in the top 10 — usually the top five — on the Billboard 200. Wallen has a rocky history with award shows, though, underperforming at last year’s CMAs and getting zero Grammy nominations (his hit “Last Night” was up for Best Country Song, but Wallen didn’t write it). So it’s possible that, despite all his success, ACM voters just won’t be feeling him as much, especially since he isn’t necessarily a high brow music pick to many. That said, the ACMs have been kinder to Wallen than the other industry award shows, giving his last album, “Dangerous,” their Album of the Year prize despite all the controversy he faced during that time. So perhaps this year he’ll just get the nominations.

Combs, on the other hand, is headed for success with his single “Fast Car,” a cover of the Tracy Chapman classic, which became a massive hit in 2023. It was the eighth biggest hit of the year across all genres, and the second biggest country song, after Wallen’s “Last Night.” But most importantly, it won both big prizes at the CMAs: Single of the Year and Song of the Year. It’s going to be hard for something else to take it down at the ACMs, especially with nothing else achieving that much acclaim or success since.

But if something does, it’s going to be Chris Stapleton’s “White Horse,” which recently beat Combs’s “Fast Car” for Best Country Solo Performance at the 2024 Grammys. “White Horse,” while not as big a hit as “Fast Car,” was still a success for Stapleton, peaking at number-12 on the Hot 100 and at number-two on the Country Airplay chart. Combs may still have the lead, though, considering that he tends to fare better at the country industry awards than he does at the Grammys. Stapleton might also be nipping at Wallen’s heels for Album of the Year with his record “Higher.” The album is certainly not as big a commercial hit as either Combs’s or Wallen’s, but it’s still an acclaimed effort from one of country music’s brightest stars and would be a more traditional pick for older voters.

Also nominated for Album of the Year will likely be Kelsea Ballerini’s acclaimed EP “Rolling Up the Welcome Mat” following her noms at both the CMAs and Grammys. While an EP winning would be uncommon, that prior recognition could indicate strong industry support for her. But perhaps the strongest challenger to Wallen is Zach Bryan, the alt-country star who has taken the streaming world by storm. Bryan’s biggest disadvantage is that he doesn’t perform well on country radio, with the album’s lead single “I Remember Everything” only peaking at number-26 on the country airplay chart. That said, Bryan’s self-titled album has been huge, consistently being in the top 10 on the Billboard 200 and getting three Grammy noms, including Best Country Album. Bryan somewhat surprisingly lost that Grammy to Lainey Wilson‘s “Bell Bottom Country,” but that album is not eligible for the ACMs this year (it already won last year).

Regardless of what the nominations look like, we are sure to get a great show this year. New stars like Nate Smith, Megan Moroney, Warren Zeiders and Chayce Beckham will likely be recognized, and we are bound to see nominations for some of the most accomplished stars of the year like those mentioned above. Hopefully we can also get a Beyoncé “Cowboy Carter” number as a surprise performance? A man can dream.

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