A chance to punch a ticket

The Warriors are on the verge of the postseason, and tonight could make it all but official.

When the 2023-24 NBA season began, this is not where I thought we’d be. I didn’t anticipate the Golden State Warriors being in a fight for the Play-In Tournament. I didn’t imagine them playing crucial regular season games in April, unless those games were to determine home court advantage and playoff seeding.

And I certainly didn’t circle Game No. 76, against the Houston Rockets of all teams, as a pivotal contest for both sides.

But it is. And for the Warriors, it’s a chance to effectively punch their ticket to the postseason.

The Rockets made an admirable late-season push, despite the loss of Alperen Şengün, their best player. They won 11 consecutive games in March, and 13 out of 14. They parked the nose of their race car firmly behind the Warriors’ tail, and looked primed to draft behind them for a turn or two, then explode past them on the stretch.

The Warriors can thank them for that. That pressure seemed to ignite something in Golden State, and the Dubs have now gone on a five-game winning streak, matching their season high — and four of those wins have come on the road.

As a result, the final Play-In Tournament spot is fully theirs to take, but tonight is a chance for a knockout blow. With just seven games remaining for each team, the Dubs and Rockets square off tonight in Houston.

Thanks to their winning streak — and Houston ending their own streak with a pair of losses — the Warriors now sit three games ahead of the Rockets in the standings. Regardless of what happens tonight, the Dubs have won the tiebreaker, meaning Houston needs to not just match Golden State’s record, but leapfrog them.

With a win tonight, that lead will be four, with six games remaining. For the Warriors to miss the Play-In Tournament with that lead, they would need to either go 1-5 (with the Rockets going 6-0), or 0-6 (with the Rockets going 5-1). Anyone who has watched Golden State this year knows that is not impossible, but ... it’s pretty darned close.

The Warriors are still in the driver’s seat with a loss. They’d still be up two (again, with the tiebreaker), and an easy schedule remaining. They control their own fate either way. But this is a chance not just to deliver the knockout blow and effectively punch their ticket, but to also build on Tuesday’s win over the Dallas Mavericks — a win that shows a trend towards the Warriors figuring out how to win critical games. That’s a trait it would behoove them to show, since it seems like they’ll need to win back-to-back elimination games on the road if they want to advance to the playoffs.

It’s also a chance to make a late push up the standings. The Warriors are only two games back of the Los Angeles Lakers, and have another game remaining against LA ... a game that, if the Warriors won, would give them the tiebreaker. Golden State’s schedule — road games against the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, and Portland Trail Blazers, with two home games against the Utah Jazz and one against the New Orleans Pelicans — is, to my eyes, friendlier than the Lakers’ final games: road contests against the Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies, and home games against the Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Minnesota Timberwolves.

While it’s very likely that the Dubs and Lakers meet in the first game of the Play-In Tournament, Golden State still has a very good opportunity to make sure that game is at the Chase Center instead of The House That Bitcoin Built.

Put it all together, and this is an opportunistic game for the Warriors. They don’t stand to lose too much with a loss, but they sure could gain a lot with a win.