State of the Emmys race: Lily Gladstone and Walton Goggins make savvy category changes
Based on the combined predictions of over 2,000 Gold Derby users, Lily Gladstone (“Under the Bridge”) and Walton Goggins (“Fallout”) are not generally expected to reap 2024 Emmy bids at this time. However, their chances of soon reaching predicted nominee status greatly improved over the past week thanks to their new category placements. The limited series actress’ odds jumped from 100/1 to 66/1 after she migrated from lead to supporting, while the dramatic actor went from 62/1 to 37/1 by making the opposite move.
Gladstone’s “Under the Bridge” cast mate, Riley Keough, joined her in switching from lead to supporting but still retains her original 100/1 odds. The other two performers who rose above their previous 100/1 odds this week are lead actress Julianne Moore (“Mary & George”) and featured actor Mark Ruffalo (“All the Light We Cannot See”), both of whom hail from limited series.
At this point, the non-continuing series races are proving to be the most dynamic ones overall. For the second week in a row, FX’s “Shōgun” essentially improved its standing across the board, most notably moving from third to second place in our Best Limited Series ranking. Lead actor Hiroyuki Sanada rose from fifth to fourth place while three of his cast mates (Cosmo Jarvis, Anna Sawai, and Tadanobu Asano) ended up with better odds than last week. Another of the show’s performers, Moeka Hoshi, was just added to our list of supporting female options and is already in 10th place with 40/1 odds.
It was also a great week for limited series “Griselda,” “Ripley,” and “The Sympathizer,” each of which achieved stronger program and lead acting odds (respectively applying to Sofía Vergara, Andrew Scott, and Hoa Xuande). When it comes to our currently predicted winners, “The Sympathizer” supporting actor Robert Downey Jr. gained the most ground this week, attracting a 1.3% larger share of his category’s top votes.
The only new predicted acting nominee who has emerged since last Tuesday is Morgan Spector, who joins Carrie Coon, Christine Baranski, Cynthia Nixon, and Nathan Lane as our fifth forecasted contender from HBO’s “The Gilded Age.” In the Best Drama Actor race, he displaces Ben Mendelsohn (“The New Look”), whose show also has longer odds compared to last week.
Included among the other continuing series performers whose odds improved since our last update are Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”), Holland Taylor (“The Morning Show”), Jack Lowden (“Slow Horses”), and “The Bear” cast mates Ayo Edebiri, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Lionel Boyce, and Liza Colon-Zayas. Programs “The Curse” and “The Gentlemen” are also on the rise, with the latter hovering just outside of our predicted Best Comedy Series lineup.
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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