Sun/FOX45/UB poll: Crime tops voters’ issues; Harborplace and a new bridge favored

Crime and violence are top concerns for Baltimore Democratic voters and, to a lesser extent, for the Maryland electorate in general as high-profile campaigns for Baltimore mayor and City Council president, U.S. Senate and more come to a head, according to a new poll for The Baltimore Sun, the University of Baltimore and FOX45.

Addressing public safety was the No. 1 priority for city voters polled and among the top three for voters statewide, though it appears to be an issue in the background, rather than a dominating factor, when considered alongside other topics like the economy or taxes, according to the poll.

“You don’t have an overwhelming 60 or 70 percent on any of these issues,” said John Willis, a former secretary of state under Democratic Gov. Parris Glendening and executive in residence at the University of Baltimore’s School of Public and International Affairs. “It’s not like there is a single issue out there driving the electorate.”

Among voters deciding between Mayor Brandon Scott, former Mayor Sheila Dixon and others in the May 14 Baltimore Democratic primary, public safety issues were a priority for 37%.

Statewide, it was among three issues that voters said will determine who they pick in the open U.S. Senate race — with 19% saying economic factors, 16% saying political partisanship and 13% saying public safety is top of mind.

The poll of 508 likely Baltimore Democratic primary voters was conducted April 7-11 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. Gauging voters’ interest on a number of issues, it also found broad support for a developer’s plans to remake Harborplace.

On statewide issues, the survey of 1,292 likely voters across Maryland — conducted April 7-10 and with a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points — found the public to prefer to rebuild the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge rather than replace it with a tunnel, and that there are no signs of buyer’s remorse after the state legalized recreational cannabis.

With juvenile justice among the prominent problems facing the Maryland General Assembly this year and in the future, the poll found voters were split over addressing crimes involving children with rehabilitative programs or tougher penalties. It also found a plurality of voters would oppose a lawmaker’s reelection if they voted to raise taxes.

Crime and public safety

Forty-seven percent of statewide voters think Maryland is headed in the right direction and an even split of city Democratic voters — 40% each — think the city is on the right or wrong track.

But for those who think things are headed the wrong way, public safety is a top concern.

Violence, crime, safety, guns or drugs was mentioned by 58% of city Democrats who thought Baltimore was going the wrong direction — by far the most frequent concern — and by 24% of statewide voters who think the state is declining, which was among their top three concerns (taxes and cost of living were the other two).

Across Maryland, 37% of voters said crime was not affecting their quality of life, while 57% said it was.

“We have to be proactive,” said poll respondent Catherine Hebron, a 65-year-old Baltimore resident who said she got a tracking device for her car in case it’s stolen. Still, she worries. Every morning after she wakes up, she looks out her window to make sure it’s there.

Hebron was among the 42% of city Democratic voters who, according to the poll, said crime has increased compared to four years ago. Another 28% said it’s decreased and 27% said it’s stayed about the same. Those who said crime has increased were more likely to be older and female.

A far larger share of Black voters (53%) than white voters (18%) said crime had increased, though nearly equal portions of Black and white voters (38% and 33%, respectively) said it was the most important issue when casting their vote for mayor.

Hebron, who is Black and lives in the Northwood neighborhood in Northeast Baltimore, credits Scott for his work on the issue during his first four-year term.

“I feel that he will continue to put his efforts and put programs out there to help the youth,” she said. “Let’s give him another term to let him finish up what he’s doing.”

Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, the Annapolis-based firm that conducted the poll, said the results indicate a “softening” concern on the issue. OpinonWorks has conducted polling for The Sun since 2007.

“The perception of crime is a lagging indicator,” Raabe said. “People will continue to feel unsafe even as crime goes down.”

Maryland lawmakers, attempting to assuage rising public concerns about crimes committed by young people, recently passed legislation to both bring more children into the criminal justice system and provide them with support services.

Voters, according to the poll, are split on whether the emphasis should be on rehabilitation programs and support services (48%) or on “cracking down on these crimes with tougher penalties” (43%).

Willis said juvenile crime does not appear to be “a particularly divisive primary issue,” but pointed to Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks’ campaign ads that have highlighted her career as a prosecutor in Prince George’s County.

“She has a record, Willis said. “If her campaign decides that’s a motivating factor, you’ll see more of that crime commercial.”

Taxes

With the year-over-year national rate of inflation still at about 3.5%, economic and cost-of-living concerns are the biggest factor as voters make a decision in the U.S. Senate race — where U.S. Rep. David Trone is leading over Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, in the Democratic primary and former Gov. Larry Hogan is expected to win the Republican nomination.

Raabe said the 19% of voters who put those issues at the top of their list is likely lower than it would have been two years ago, when inflation hit a modern-day record of 9%. But there are still two distinct sets of voters who are concerned, he said.

2024 election voter guide for Maryland and Baltimore area

“One is working-class and lower-income people who are truly having difficulty making ends meet,” Raabe said. “The other, the people on the more conservative end of the spectrum — regardless of what their economic station is.”

However, one of the poll’s questions also indicates taxes are not the driving issue this year in elections, he said.

Asked if they would vote against their representative in the Maryland General Assembly if that official voted to raise taxes, 44% of statewide voters said they would and 34% said they would not. Raabe said the portion of voters saying “yes” would have to be 20 to 30 percentage points higher for legislators to be worried.

“Nobody likes taxes. People aren’t going to speak in favor of taxes or indicate they’re going to vote in favor of taxes,” Raabe said. “But when you really see a tax revolt, that number is up in the 70s, and it’s not right now.”

State legislators will run again in 2026.

Harborplace

Baltimore voters in November will decide whether to move forward with plans to demolish and reimagine Harborplace as a modernized mixed-use space. That referendum is on track to pass, according to the poll, which showed an overwhelming majority of city Democrats support it. The city is heavily Democratic.

Just under 60% said they support the redevelopment plans and about 20% said they either opposed them or were not sure. Passed by the mayor and City Council earlier this year, voters will decide on whether to amend the city charter, which is required for the plan to go into effect.

“It does not appear to be very controversial,” Raabe said.

Key Bridge

Replacing the Key Bridge that collapsed into the Patapsco River on March 26 — killing six construction workers and cutting off key arteries for both river and road transportation — is still a long way off.

But planning for that replacement should focus on rebuilding the crossing as a bridge rather than a tunnel, Democratic primary voters in Baltimore said. According to the poll, 57% said the rebuild should be a bridge, 21% said tunnel and 22% said they weren’t sure.

That wasn’t surprising, considering discussions by state and federal officials have revolved around rebuilding it as a bridge, Raabe said. In fact, initial planning for the rebuild has begun, and lawmakers are negotiating for full federal funding for the project.

“A bridge would be quicker,” said Nigel Atherley, a poll respondent who said his commute to Washington, D.C., as a federal law enforcement officer has become longer since the Key Bridge traffic was diverted. “I never used to run into it. I’m not one for a tunnel.”

Cannabis

The statewide poll found voters are consistently support Maryland’s rollout of recreational cannabis legalization. That process began with the November 2022 election when voters approved legalization by a margin of 2-1 and continued when the recreational market opened in July.

By similar margins, voters surveyed recalled voting for the measure and said they would be comfortable with a cannabis dispensary opening in their community.

“There isn’t much indication there’s buyer’s remorse or regret,” Raabe said.

The location of dispensaries became a heated issue in some parts of the state as some local officials — in Carroll and Prince George’s counties, for instance — tried to limit where they can set up shop. A bill passed in the recently finished legislative session would restrict how far those local zoning laws can go.

According to the poll, 57% said they are comfortable with a dispensary in their neighborhood and 33% are not. It also found 47% believe police should not be able to search a vehicle based solely on the smell of marijuana — they can’t now, under state law — while 42% said officers should be allowed to conduct searches on that basis.

Baltimore Sun reporter Lia Russell contributed to this article.

Coming Thursday: Presidential primaries and education

About this poll

Results for statewide questions are based on a survey of 1,292 likely Maryland general election voters: 600 likely Democratic primary voters, 451 likely Republican primary voters, and 241 voters of any party affiliation who said they were likely to vote in the general election but not a primary. The poll was conducted April 7-10 by OpinionWorks of Annapolis. Voters were randomly selected from the Maryland State Board of Elections’ voter file and contacted by trained interviewers by phone (landline and cellular). Additional voters were interviewed online through voter file sampling and databases known as consumer panels. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for the all voters surveyed. It is 4.0 points for the Democratic primary voters, and 4.6 points for the sample of Republican primary voters.

Results for Baltimore questions are based on a survey of 508 likely Democratic primary voters in the city. The poll was conducted April 7-11 by OpinionWorks. Voters were randomly selected from the Board of Elections’ voter file and from databases known as consumer panels and contacted by trained interviewers by cellphone and online. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.