Gold price holds near record, could rise to $2,700, says Goldman Sachs

Gold held steady for a second straight session on Wednesday and remains near a record high, as rising geopolitical risks continue to offer support even as the Federal Reserve signalled a possible delay in its interest rate cuts.

Spot gold edged 0.1% higher to $2,387.12 per ounce by 9:12 a.m. EDT, about $50 off its all-time high from last week. US gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,402.50 per ounce in New York.

Gold closed little changed on Tuesday after Fed chair Powell backed away from providing any guidance on when rate cuts may start, saying instead that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer.

His comments caused both Treasury yields and the dollar to jump, and spurred another collapse in market-implied expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. Traditionally, this would be a negative for the non-yielding gold, yet the metal remains on an uptrend that has surprised some onlookers.

“The precious metal is heavily overbought from a technical perspective…but bulls are drawing strength from the overall uncertainty across markets with geopolitics overshadowing data and monetary policy expectations,” said FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga.

Bullion has gained about 16% so far this year and more than $500 since October 7, with the Middle East conflict being the tipping point.

In a Reuters note, Otunuga suggested that while gold has largely remained uncorrelated with the US dollar and Treasury yields in the current trend, it may still show short-term responses to movements in both.

Also offering a long-standing support to gold’s rally are robust buying by central banks and increased demand from Chinese consumers.

With these non-traditional factors underpinning gold, Goldman Sachs this week raised its price outlook to $2,700 an ounce, noting the metal’s stability following the latest US inflation data.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)