Why we suck at estimating software projects
Okay, so I’m just going to go ahead and say it:
It is impossible to accurately estimate a software project of any significance.
Now, a non-trivial number of you are going to read that sentence and think I’m nuts. And maybe I am. But someone has to just say what we all know to be true but don’t want to admit.
Look, there have been countless books written, innumerable conferences held, untold consulting hours purchased, and endless blog posts written on how to be better at estimating software projects. I get it. We all work earnestly to give our best effort in an attempt to placate hungry bosses who want to know when a new feature will be ready. We all set deadlines based on a conference date and not when the software will actually be ready.