Kurtenbach: The 2024 NFL Draft is 49ers GM John Lynch’s prove-it moment

SANTA CLARA — John Lynch should be out of a job.

The 49ers’ general manager was responsible for one of the worst moves in recent NFL history — three first-round picks for the right to select quarterback Trey Lance.

The quarterback is now gone, traded away before the 2023 season, and all the 49ers received in return was a day-three draft pick.

No GM should survive a disaster like that.

Yet Lynch remains, and he’s as entrenched as ever.

“Thank god for Mr. Irrelevant,” he said Monday.

Indeed, three years after going all-in and trading for Lance, the outside perception is that the Niners are none the worse for wear.

After all, San Francisco played in the Super Bowl—their second NFC title in four years—and they have elite players at top positions, as well as Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, who they believe is a franchise quarterback.

But don’t let the outside perception fool you — beneath the surface, things are murky in Santa Clara.

Now, Lynch’s seat is ice cold, but this week’s NFL Draft is a critical moment for the Niners’ GM.

This team might not have glaring needs heading into three days of selections, but the 49ers’ roster desperately needs to build depth for the upcoming season (and bring in starters for the not-too-distant future). With all those highly-paid veterans (and with another, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, coming soon) on the roster, that depth can only be found via the draft.

The 49ers have 10 picks in this draft, including the team’s first day-one selection since picking Lance. This is a critical crop.

And Lynch will be heading into this draft with new voices in his ear.

This draft not only needs to produce depth for the football roster, but it’ll thoroughly test the depth of Lynch’s football operations department.

Lynch has lost a top lieutenant from his staff the past three of the last four seasons. Like Kyle Shanahan’s offense has proliferated the league in recent seasons, with coaches being poached left and right in the process, the Niners’ football operations department has also been raided. In 2021, Martin Mayhew went to Washington to be their GM. Last season, Ran Carthon took over as the Titans’ head man. But this offseason brought the most significant loss, as Lynch’s right-hand man, Adam Peters, replaced Mayhew in Washington.

It was a different kind of California exodus. You could even call it a brain drain.

“It gets annoying. Like, ‘Leave us alone,” Lynch said at the NFL Scouting Combine in February.

And heading into this offseason, and particularly this draft, one has to wonder: Is what’s left enough?

It’s cruel timing. Right as the roster needs to establish a new foundation, Lynch needs to build one in the front office, too.

Add it all up, and this draft becomes a proving ground for a GM who has been in place since 2017 and has done an excellent job overall.

Let’s be honest about how Lynch came into the fold: When Shanahan hired him, Lynch was to be a figurehead—someone to execute the head coach’s desired moves and be a universally beloved figure in the increasingly political world of the NFL.

Lynch proved to be more than that, and he quickly gained Shanahan’s trust when it came to actually building and maintaining a roster. In turn, he’s taken on far more than initially anticipated.

But the backbone of that success was the dynamite staff Lynch assembled (in addition to the aforementioned, Lynch’s original director of football research and development, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, is now the GM of the Vikings). Collectively, Lynch’s team helped build the Niners into the perennial contenders they are today, despite not having a superstar quarterback throughout the tenure.

That foundation of on-field success was built in the draft. I’d argue no team in the league has been more bespoke with their draft rankings than the Niners. Big hits from later-round picks (Fred Warner, George Kittle, Purdy) became something of a 49ers specialty. Peters has received a lot of external credit for that success.

But how much of that success can be attributed to Lynch? How much of that was his staff? Does Shanahan get a bad rap when it comes to drafting?

So long as Lynch always credits the collective for everything, we’ll never fully know.

And Lynch isn’t going to abandon his belief in the power of the group, even with new folks taking on larger roles.

But while this is a group project, the hierarchy remains. Tariq Ahmad — previously the Niners’ director of college scouting and Peters’ one-time right-hand man — is now Lynch’s No. 2 on draft matters.

We’ve already seen some changes with how the 49ers handle their roster with RJ Gillen — who, alongside Ahmad, was promoted to director of player personnel this offseason — stepping into the role as Lynch’s consigliere on free agency this offseason.

Ahmad has been in the room for the hits and misses of drafts past, but with his voice carrying more sway these days, it’ll be fascinating to see if the 49ers’ approach sticks to the team’s tried-and-sometimes-true formula or changes.

One change we know has been made. Lynch says the Niners are “much more data-driven” regarding the draft these days.

What does that mean?

We’ll have a read on it all by the end of the weekend.

As for the true results of the annual player selection meeting, we won’t know if it was a hit or miss for years yet.

But for this team, there’s only one viable result at this time: it better be a hit.