State of the Emmys race: Best Drama Actress brewing
At the start of the current Emmys season, our in-house editors and cadre of awards experts generally agreed that the next Best Drama Actress winner would be Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”). That wasn’t the case for long, however, as the expert odds have now consistently favored Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) for over two months. Although the editors’ opinion is shared by a majority of our 2,000+ Emmy predictors, the experts could be onto something given the wide open nature of this and many more 2024 Emmy races.
Staunton’s claim to victory is strengthened by the fact that her show is the only past Best Drama Series nominee currently vying for that prize (which it won three years ago). It also helps that her supporting cast mate, Elizabeth Debicki, is her category’s obvious frontrunner due to her status as the sole 2023 drama acting contender eligible for an immediate return. If “The Crown” and Debicki do prevail as all factions of our readers expect, it would make a great deal of sense for Staunton to be honored as well.
At this point, there is only one other example of one of our predictor subgroups deviating from the rest in terms of an anticipated win. Since late March, our editors have independently backed “Shōgun” for Best Limited Series, and that could soon become the consensus pick across the board given how rapidly the gap between it and general frontrunner “Fargo” is narrowing. Since its premiere, the historical epic has continually gained support in this and all four possible acting categories, with cast members Anna Sawai, Hiroyuki Sanada, Cosmo Jarvis, Moeka Hoshi, and Fumi Nikaido all having improved upon their odds since last Tuesday.
The comedy and drama series that saw the most significant odds improvement this week are “The Bear” and “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” with the former’s female star, Ayo Edebiri, having gained the most ground (0.3%) among our predicted winners. She and male lead Jeremy Allen White are extremely safe bets, but the fates of their featured cast mates remain uncertain. As of now, both the editors and experts doubt the overall consensus that the show will simultaneously score six supporting bids (including four male ones), although “The White Lotus” recently proved it can be done – twice.
This week differs from the past two in that our users’ combined Emmy forecasts across 16 major categories do not include any new predicted nominees. Nonetheless, breakthroughs appear imminent for several programs, such as dramas “Fallout” and “Sugar” and TV movie “Scoop,” the last of which is already a predicted nominee among our editors and experts.
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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