49ers’ faced with more Brandon Aiyuk inflation. How will it affect the draft?
The price keeps going up for Brandon Aiyuk.
And they have the Detroit Lions, last year’s NFC Championship Game foe, to thank for it.
While the Lions are still heartbroken over blowing a 17-point halftime lead and losing 34-31 to the 49ers with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, they can take at least a little solace in making it just that more difficult for their new rival to reel in their own star wide receiver.
According to several outlets, Amon-Ra St. Brown received a four-year, $120 million extension from Detroit Wednesday with $77 million guaranteed, a number the 49ers will have to meet or exceed to keep Aiyuk. Assuming the 49ers have a max offer in mind for Aiyuk and it’s not in the ballpark of St. Brown’s haul, it could make a trade more likely Thursday night when the NFL Draft begins in . . . . drumroll please . . . Detroit.
That makes St. Brown the highest paid receiver in the NFL, or at least in the realm of Miami’s Tyreek Hill ($30 million APY), the Raiders’ Davante Adams ($28 million), the Rams’ Cooper Kupp ($26.7) and the Eagles’ DeVonta Smith ($25 million).
Smith’s deal came last week in the form of a three-year extension.
You can make the case St. Brown is deserving of climbing to the top of the ladder based on his age (24) and production (119 receptions, 1,515 yards, 12.7 average, 10 touchdowns). Aiyuk, 26, had 75 receptions for 1,342 yards, a 17.9 average and seven touchdowns. Smith, 25, had 81 receptions for 1,066 yards, a 13.2 average and seven touchdowns.
Yet it’s pretty clear the Aiyuk camp will want something much closer to what St. Brown received as opposed to Smith and what’s not clear his how high the 49ers are willing to go. Every team has a line it won’t cross in terms of a contract offer and Aiyuk is either right up against it or has taken it to the point of no return.
Aiyuk is under contract, as general manager John Lynch pointed out Monday at his pre draft press conference, but there is zero chance he’s playing for a fifth-year option of $14 million that could be less than half of his expected average per year going forward.
The thought here from the beginning is Aiyuk’s deal would be made in due time, much like the ones that retained George Kittle in 2020, Deebo Samuel in 2022 and Nick Bosa last year. All three of those negotiations had some drama attached.
It could still go that way. Owner Jed York, Lynch and the negotiating team could end up swallowing hard and making the deal for a good reason — if Aiyuk is not on the roster, the 49ers’ are suddenly not as good as they were while he was still on it.
Jared Goff Amon-Ra St. Brown. Touchdown @Lions!
: #JAXvsDET on FOX
: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/v9GIqhdjpD pic.twitter.com/wPp9qiPoRv— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2022
It’s the last year of Brock Purdy’s rookie deal. Kittle, Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey and tackle Trent Williams are at the height of their powers but a drop-off is coming sooner rather than later based on age and/or tread on the tires.
If the 49ers’ remain in a go-for-it mode, and there’s no reason to believe they’re not, losing Aiyuk would be a substantial blow. In the first year anyway, he can’t be replaced.
It’s well documented that 49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan is hard on his receivers and expects a lot from them both in terms of route-running and precision as well as blocking. It took Aiyuk until the fourth season to become the receiver he is now.
Even if the 49ers were to trade Aiyuk and a boatload of their 10 picks to one team to draft top prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State, he likely wouldn’t be as good in 2024 as Aiyuk would be in his fifth year of the system.
For as much as the draft is for adding youth and depth, those factors take a backseat in 2024 to a window that is closing on the 49ers in terms of winning their sixth Lombardi Trophy and first since the 1994 season. They were a fourth-and-1 stop in overtime from doing it last season, which could have altered their 2024 approach.
The fact that they lost 25-22 in Super Bowl LVIII means another season of going all-in, or at least it should.
Although it takes two sides to negotiate, it makes you wonder why the 49ers aren’t sometimes more proactive in locking up their players. They did it on a smaller scale with Dre Greenlaw in 2022 to make sure free agency never came up.
Both Samuel and Bosa were pretty honest about the fact that their late arrivals which included missing the offseason program and at least some of training camp affected their performance the following season. Samuel conceded he wasn’t on top shape. Bosa, while in great condition, conceded the late start affected his start of the season as his sack total dropped from 18 1/2 to 10 1/2.
That makes the Aiyuk stalemate a no-win situation.
The 49ers lose if they trade Aiyuk because as the lone conventional high-end NFL wide receiver on the roster he can’t be replaced and it removes an important weapon for Purdy.
The 49ers lose if Aiyuk is a holdout because of the aforementioned experiences involving Samuel and Bosa.
Ideally, the 49ers would gulp hard and sign Aiyuk as soon as possible because they’re capable of doing so. Take another run at a Super Bowl, and then sort it all out next offseason when Purdy gets paid and decisions have to be made with players like Samuel, who at this point is a useful piece but an extravagance considering the rushing-receiving capability of McCaffrey.
That’s not how the 49ers roll however, so either Aiyuk is traded Thursday night or both sides dig in for another tense negotiation with a star player.
Neither scenario makes the 49ers better.