NFL Draft 2024: Betting public believes only 4 quarterbacks will go in first round

There are certain years that it’s good to be picking high if an NFL team wants to draft a quarterback, and 2024 is certainly one of them. It seems extremely likely that Caleb Williams will go No. 1 to the Chicago Bears, Jayden Daniels will go No. 2 to the Washington Commanders and Drake Maye will go in the top 5 (if he doesn’t go No. 3 to the New England Patriots).

It also seems likely that Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy will go in the top 10, but even if he doesn’t, he’s a first-round lock. By my count, that makes four first-round QB locks in the 2024 NFL Draft. The line at sportsbooks has been over/under 4.5 QBs drafted in Round 1, with the over now heavily juiced at DraftKings Sportsbook at -380 and the under at +280.

At DraftKings, a whopping 79 percent of bettors have wagered on the under 4.5 QBs, but the majority of the total dollars wagered (61 percent) are on the over.

Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are the two other likely candidates to go in Round 1 — only one would need to be drafted for over bettors to cash their tickets.