2024 Tony Awards nominations slugfest: Final predictions in 17 competitive categories [WATCH]

“This crazy whirlwind of a season has finally come to an end,” declares Sam Eckmann as we kick off our final Tony Awards nominations predictions slugfest of 2024. We begin our conversation with the musical categories and the ever-challenging race for Best Musical. Sam and I both feel “pretty secure” about the top three shows – “Suffs,” “Illinoise” and “Hell’s Kitchen” – and we surprisingly concur on the final two slots, predicting “Here Lies Love” and “The Outsiders.” There are so many potential nominees in contention, though, that we cite our alternate picks as I opt for “Days of Wine and Roses” as my number six, and Sam goes with “The Notebook.” Watch our full Tony Awards video slugfest above.

You can also watch both of us giving our wishlist picks, pleading to Tony nomination voters to choose some people who might be under the radar. Watch that video here.

Sam and I once again match perfectly on our top four for Best Musical Revival, selecting “Merrily We Roll Along,” “Cabaret,” “The Who’s Tommy” and “Gutenberg! The Musical!” Sam declares the remounting of the Stephen Sondheim show “very far out front,” especially after the negative reviews for this new production of “Cabaret,” which he says had “an uphill battle here versus London” because of how strongly New York audiences feel about the past, Tony-winning Sam Mendes version.

We’re still batting a thousand with each other’s choices as we turn to the Best Actor race, predicting Jonathan Groff (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Brian d’Arcy James (“Days of Wine and Rose”), Chip Zien (“Harmony”), Ali Louis Bourzgui (“The Who’s Tommy”) and Eddie Redmayne (“Cabaret”). I raise the prospect of whether Redmayne, following those critical notices, could potentially miss, and Sam replies, “Just ask Denzel Washington,” referring to the time in 2014 when the Tony winner was overlooked for “A Raisin in the Sun.” I also flag the possibility of Brody Grant (“The Outsiders”) sneaking into the race.

SEE 2024 Drama League Award nominations: 54 contenders for Distinguished Performance

Our paths start to diverge with our Best Actress predictions. We agree on the frontrunners Kelli O’Hara (“Days of Wine and Roses”) and Maleah Joi Moon (“Hell’s Kitchen”) as well as Maryann Plunkett (“The Notebook”). From there, Sam throws his support behind Shaina Taub (“Suffs”) and Eden Espinosa (“Lempicka”), while I struggle to make up my mind on whether to drop Espinosa or Gayle Rankin (“Cabaret”) in favor of Taub, who wrote the score and book of “Suffs” and stars as suffragist Alice Paul. Sam believes Espinosa has an edge over Rankin in part because “she’s coming back to Broadway after so many years away” in a “passion project.”

The only contender for Best Director that we feel fully confident in is Maria Friedman, who turned one of Sondheim’s most notorious flops, “Merrily We Roll Along,” into the smash success of the season. We also concur about Alex Timbers (“Here Lies Love”), Leigh Silverman (“Suffs”) and Danya Taymor (“The Outsiders”), but Sam believes strongly in Justin Peck for “Illinoise.” I am still holding onto Rebecca Frecknall for “Cabaret,” for now, though Sam describes the response to her mounting as “really divisive,” perhaps too much so to break into such a crowded year. Watch the full video for our discussion of Best Featured Actor, Featured Actress, Choreography, Musical Book and Original Score, including our debate about whether play “Stereophonic” will break into the latter category, which often favors musicals.

Speaking of “Stereophonic,” we both agree that David Adjmi‘s drama is out front in the race for Best Play. We fill out that category with contenders “Mary Jane,” “Prayer for the French Republic” and “Patriots.” Sam also gives his full support to “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” saying, “I can’t predict this category without ‘Jaja’s.” If it does get in over, say, Paula Vogel‘s “Mother Play,” which I am currently predicting, then Manhattan Theatre Club will have three of the five Best Play nominees with “Prayer,” “Jaja’s” and “Mary Jane,” which would be an incredibly impressive feat. There’s no debate about our three picks for Best Play Revival: “Appropriate,” “Purlie Victorious” and “An Enemy of the People.”

SEE Tony Talk: How many of the ‘Stereophonic’ cast will be nominated?

Best Actress is shaping up to be one of the most competitive of the season as we predict Sarah Paulson (“Appropriate”), Jessica Lange (“Mother Play”), and Rachel McAdams (“Mary Jane”) are all possible victors. For the fourth and final slot, Sam banks on Betsy Aidem for “Prayer for the French Republic,” in part because she’s “an actor’s actor,” while I’m sticking with Amy Ryan, who stepped into the shoes of Tyne Daly on incredibly short notice to star in “Doubt.” Best Actor will have five slots, three of which seem earmarked for Jeremy Strong (“An Enemy of the People”), Michael Stuhlbarg (“Patriots”), Leslie Odom Jr. (“Purlie Victorious”). We both have Liev Schreiber (“Doubt”) as well, though we are torn on which of the two “Uncle Vanya” men – Steve Carell or William Jackson Harper – will nab that fifth position.

Rounding out the top play categories is Best Director, where Sam and I surprisingly agree 100%. Our picks are Daniel Aukin for “Stereophonic,” Lila Neugebauer for “Appropriate,” Kenny Leon for “Purlie Victorious,” Rupert Goold for “Patriots” and David Cromer for “Prayer for the French Republic.” We each flag some contenders that could nab Cromer’s slot, though. I raise Sam Gold for his in-the-round revival of “An Enemy of the People” and Sam mentions both Whitney White for “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding” and Anne Kauffman for “Mary Jane.” Watch our full video slugfest above for our discussion of the Featured Actor and Featured Actress races as we dissect just how many performers from “Stereophonic” might break into those two overcrowded categories.

PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30

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