2024 Tony predictions: Complete odds for 77th annual Tony Awards nominations

The 2023-2024 Broadway season that kicked off last June with the opening of “Grey House” featured 36 productions of new and revived musicals and plays. This staggeringly crowded year – especially this spring with its 19 openings in March and April alone – means that the nominations for the 77th Tony Awards will likely be as unpredictable as ever, so review our official racetrack odds in the top 17 of 26 categories. The nominations will be announced on the morning of April 30 by Tony winners Jesse Tyler Ferguson (“Take Me Out”) and Renée Elise Goldsberry (“Hamilton”).

These official odds for the 77th Tonys are derived from the predictions of our Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users, All-Star Top 24 and all our Users, who make up the largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.

Below, see our 2024 Tony Awards predictions in 17 of the 26 categories. Make or edit your predictions before the nominations are unveiled on April 30.

MUSICALS

BEST MUSICAL
Suffs — 19/5
Illinoise — 5/1
Here Lies Love — 6/1
Hell’s Kitchen — 6/1
Days of Wine and Roses — 19/2

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
Merrily We Roll Along — 9/4
Cabaret — 16/5
The Who’s Tommy — 9/2
Gutenberg! The Musical! — 9/2

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
Kelli O’Hara, “Days of Wine and Roses” — 18/5
Gayle Rankin, “Cabaret” — 11/2
Eden Espinosa, “Lempicka” — 11/2
Maleah Joi Moon, “Hell’s Kitchen” — 6/1
Shaina Taub, “Suffs” — 8/1

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL)
Jonathan Groff, “Merrily We Roll Along” — 16/5
Eddie Redmayne, “Cabaret” — 9/2
Brian d’Arcy James, “Days of Wine and Roses” — 9/2
Chip Zien, “Harmony” — 6/1
Ali Louis Bourzgui — 21/2

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
Lindsay Mendez, “Merrily We Roll Along” — 17/5
Bebe Neuwirth, “Cabaret” — 4/1
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, “Monty Python’s Spamalot” — 6/1
Kecia Lewis, “Hell’s Kitchen” — 13/2
Shoshana Bean, “Hell’s Kitchen” — 21/2

BEST FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL)
Daniel Radcliffe,  “Merrily We Roll Along” — 31/10
Conrad Ricamora, “Here Lies Love” — 5/1
Steven Skybell, “Cabaret” — 11/2
Paul Alexander Nolan, “Water for Elephants” — 9/1
Brandon Victor Dixon, “Hell’s Kitchen” — 19/2

BEST DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)
Maria Friedman, “Merrily We Roll Along” — 3/1
Alex Timbers, “Here Lies Love” — 5/1
Rebecca Frecknall, “Cabaret” — 11/2
Leigh Silverman, “Suffs” — 7/1
Justin Peck, “Illinoise” — 9/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Suffs — 4/1
Here Lies Love — 4/1
Days of Wine and Roses — 9/2
Stereophonic — 17/2
The Outsiders — 19/2

BEST MUSICAL BOOK
Suffs — 7/2
Days of Wine and Roses — 6/1
Hell’s Kitchen — 6/1
Here Lies Love — 17/2
The Notebook — 9/1

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Illinoise — 9/2
The Who’s Tommy — 9/2
Cabaret — 5/1
Hell’s Kitchen — 6/1
The Wiz — 7/1

PLAYS

BEST PLAY
Stereophonic — 7/2
Prayer for the French Republic — 9/2
Patriots — 5/1
Mother Play — 5/1
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding — 6/1

BEST PLAY REVIVAL
Appropriate — 7/5
Purlie Victorious — 29/10
An Enemy of the People — 5/1

BEST ACTRESS
Sarah Paulson, “Appropriate” — 51/20
Jessica Lange, “Mother Play” — 16/5
Amy Ryan, “Doubt” — 4/1
Rachel McAdams, “Mary Jane” — 4/1

BEST ACTOR
Leslie Odom Jr., “Purlie Victorious” — 29/10
Michael Stuhlbarg, “Patriots” — 69/29
Jeremy Strong, “An Enemy of the People” — 37/10
Steve Carell, “Uncle Vanya” — 6/1
Liev Schreiber, “Doubt” — 15/2

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS
Kara Young, “Purlie Victorious” — 82/25
Celia Keenan-Bolger, “Mother Play” — 9/2
Francis Benhamou, “Prayer for the French Republic” — 11/2
Sarah Pidgeon, “Stereophonic” — 13/2
Jayne Houdyshell, “Uncle Vanya” — 21/2

BEST FEATURED ACTOR
Will Keen, “Patriots” — 19/5
Corey Stoll, “Appropriate” — 5/1
Jim Parsons, “Mother Play” — 11/2
Michael Imperioli, “An Enemy of the People” — 15/2
Will Brill, “Stereophonic” — 11/1

BEST DIRECTOR
Lila Neugebauer, “Appropriate” — 19/5
Kenny Leon, “Purlie Victorious” — 4/1
Daniel Aukin, “Stereophonic” — 5/1
Rupert Goold, “Patriots” — 6/1
Sam Gold, “An Enemy of the People” — 17/2