Box office preview: Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt’s action rom-com ‘The Fall Guy’ kicks off Summer 2024

Normally, the summer movie season would kick off with a Marvel superhero movie, but this May, we’re doing things a little differently. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

This year and for the first time since the pandemic, Marvel isn’t launching the month of May. Instead, Universal jumped on the date for its new action comedy “The Fall Guy,” loosely based on the popular ’80s series starring Lee Majors. Two of the Oscar-nominated stars from last year’s blockbuster “Barbenheimer” phenom unite for this new action rom-com from filmmaker David Leitch (“Bullet Train”). Those stars, of course, are Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, who were nominated for Greta Gerwig‘s “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan‘s Best Picture-winning “Oppenheimer,” respectively, two of the biggest movies of 2023. “The Fall Guy” premiered at the SXSW Film and TV Festival and even played at the annual exhibitors’ convention, CinemaCon, racking up fantastic reviews, currently at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Gosling and Blunt appeared together at the Oscars for an appropriate tribute to movie stunt people, and then Blunt made an appearance when Gosling recently hosted “Saturday Night Live,” reported to be the most watched episode in years. Last year’s “Barbie” was the biggest movie of Gosling’s career by far, although he does some action experience from Denis Villeneuve‘s “Blade Runner 2049,” the Russo Brothers‘ Netflix action movie “The Gray Man,” and Nicolas Refn‘s “Drive,” playing a similar character than he does in “The Fall Guy.” Blunt has done her share of action, whether it’s 2021’s “Jungle Cruise” opposite Dwayne Johnson, “Edge of Tomorrow” with Tom Cruise, or the “A Quiet Place” movies directed by her husband John Krasinski (who also has a new movie out this month).

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It’s unclear how many younger people will even be aware of the ’80s television series that lent its name to Leitch’s new action film, but “The Fall Guy” is following in the footsteps of many other movies that got their origins from television, including “21 Jump Street,” “Starsky and Hutch,” “The Dukes of Hazzard” and “Miami Vice.” “21 Jump Street” opened in March 2012 with $36.3 million and went on to gross $138.5 million, which is a great barometer for “The Fall Guy,” despite (presumably) being a lesser-known show among younger people. Michael Mann‘s 2006 feature film based on “Miami Vice” (which is referenced in “The Fall Guy”) may be a closer comparison, since it starred Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx, who were both incredibly hot at the time, although it ended up with less than $63.5 million despite a plum summer release.

Leitch’s last film, 2022’s “Bullet Train,” opened with $30 million with Brad Pitt, but “The Fall Guy” may have more in common with “The Lost City,” starring Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum, which came out a few months earlier and opened with roughly the same amount.

With those comparisons, an opening in the $30 to 35 million range might be considered a win for “The Fall Guy,” but having the honor of launching the summer movie season should help it open closer to $40 million or maybe even $45 million based on the amount of buzz it’s been building since March.

It’s not often that a high-concept horror movie will be considered counter-programming, but that seems to be Sony’s hopes in releasing “Tarot” into over 3,000 theaters on Friday. Starring Avantika from “Mean Girls” and Jacob Batalon from the Sony/Marvel “Spider-Man” movies, this involves a premise that involves characters from the tarot card deck coming to life and killing young people, which is on par with Blumhouse movies like “Ouija” or “Truth or Dare” without this being produced by Blumhouse, instead being the latest from Sony’s genre imprint, Screen Gems.

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Horror movies rarely rely on star power to get younger moviegoers into theaters, but this one looks like a direct rip-off of so many other horror movies (including the 2001 remake of “13 Ghosts”). On top of that, there will be no reviews for the movie before Thursday afternoon, which is rarely a good sign that the movie is any good, or that the studio is expecting any good reviews. (Screen Gems became quite notorious in the 2000s for not screening its movies in advance for critics.)

Because of this and the lack of awareness against much stronger films, “Tarot” will probably be lucky if it gets anywhere near $10 million this weekend. Instead, it’s probably going to end up in the $6 to 8 million range, which means “Challengers” could end up being it for second place in its second weekend.

Despite the lackluster showing for anniversary re-releases “Alien” and “The Mummy” this past weekend, that isn’t stopping Disney and Lucasfilm from re-releasing “Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace” back into theaters for its 25th anniversary, despite it being available on Disney+ for many years. We don’t have a theater count yet, but this only needs $2 million to break into the Top 10, and even the fans who actively hated the first of George Lucas‘ prequels might go out to see this in theaters.

Other movies hitting theaters this week include Jane Schoenbrun‘s thriller “I Saw the TV Glow,” starring Justice Smith, which will be in select cities after receiving high praise from its Sundance premiere. There’s a good chance that A24 will expand it wider over the course of May. (Update: Actually, it’s scheduled to go “nationwide” on May 17.)

Also, Oscar-winning Japanese filmmaker Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”) returns with his new movie, “Evil Does Not Exist,” which, despite its title, is not a horror-thriller, but rather a drama about a Japanese farming community affected by a new “glamping” development.

Ethan Hawke directs his daughter, Maya Hawke, playing writer Flannery O’Connor in “Wildcat,” which will also get a limited release.

You can check back this Sunday afternoon for a recap on how the above movies did against the returning ones.

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