2024 ACM Awards predictions: Will Morgan Wallen claim Album of the Year for the 2nd time?
Country music has had a great couple of years, both critically and commercially, and that can be seen in this year’s Academy of Country Music Awards nominations. The Album of the Year lineup is particularly strong, with critically beloved stars facing off against some of the best known names in country music. But who will win?
The front-runner might be Morgan Wallen, with “One Thing at a Time.” The record has been huge, ranking as the number-one album of 2023 in the United States across all genres. Such a feat is substantial; it’s one of only five country albums to have achieved this. This doesn’t necessarily mean Wallen has to win, but such success can be hard to ignore sometimes. In fact, the last three country albums that were year-end Billboard 200 number-ones — Taylor Swift’s “Fearless,” Carrie Underwood’s “Some Hearts” and Wallen’s own “Dangerous: The Double Album” — all won this award.
That previous Wallen win also helps his case, as “Dangerous” came when he was under way more scrutiny due to his multiple controversies at the start of the decade. It’s not that Wallen is necessarily spotless now, but his controversial attitude seems to have been written off, so “One Thing at a Time” should, on paper, have an easier time winning than its predecessor. The album’s biggest disadvantage, if anything, is that it’s critically panned, scoring a terrible 47 on Metacritic. Plus, Wallen’s music doesn’t have prestige appeal.
If voters are looking for a more critically favored choice, then there’s always Chris Stapleton. While “Higher” isn’t his most popular or acclaimed album, it’s still a slice of Stapleton’s iconic country-blues that will surely resonate with traditional audiences and voters. The album also includes the hit “White Horse,” which won two Grammys this year and could be a sign of industry support. Stapleton has also won three times before in this category, for “Traveller,” “From A Room: Volume 1” and most recently “Starting Over.” That said, those albums had more commercial success than the new one and weren’t facing albums as dominant as Wallen’s, so it might be harder for Stapleton to prevail this time.
There’s also Luke Combs, nominated this year for “Gettin’ Old.” The album is the biggest hit here besides Wallen’s, including the hits “Fast Car,” “Love You Anyway” and “Where the Wild Things Are.” Combs hasn’t won many awards for the album itself — more so for “Fast Car” — so this might not be his best bet. However, there’s a good chance that “Fast Car” sweeps its song categories, so if voters are really feeling him that much, then maybe he’ll go all the way. Also likelier to succeed for his single is Cody Johnson, nominated here for his record “Leather.” The album has been a success for him, notching the hit “The Painter,” nominated for Song of the Year. Johnson got a great package of nominations this year, including Entertainer of the Year and Male Artist of the Year, which could suggest rising enthusiasm for him. However, since his album only has one hit, voters might prefer to honor that rather than the whole body of work.
Last but certainly not least is Kelsea Ballerini, who’s nominated here with the EP “Rolling Up the Welcome Mat (For Good).” The EP has been a success for Ballerini, who has now been nominated at the CMAs, ACMs, and Grammys for it. It lost the CMA and Grammy to Lainey Wilson, who’s not nominated here. So with that in mind, there might be enough passion for Ballerini to actually win since her album has gotten enough love to be a consistent nominee throughout the season. At the Grammys, it edged out both Wallen and Combs for a nomination, so there’s quite a lot of strength there. In fact, maybe Ballerini is the one with the best chance to beat Wallen. Sure, her album doesn’t have radio hits, but its narrative is about much more than that. First is her divorce and its aftermath, which could resonate with many voters. And second is the acclaim this EP has received. So if voters are looking for a deeper choice than Wallen and Combs’s mainstream radio extravaganzas or Stapleton’s traditional set of country-rock ballads, Ballerini might be it.
Still, it’s hard not to predict Wallen. The ACMs lean way more commercial than the Grammys, and his previous win indicates that they are very much on Wallen’s side compared to other award shows. And considering Wallen has strong competition in the artist and song categories, this might be the easiest place to throw him a bone.
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