A machine learning model for the early diagnosis of bloodstream infection in patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit

by Felipe Liporaci, Danilo Carlotti, Ana Carlotti

Bloodstream infection (BSI) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and high healthcare costs. Early detection and appropriate treatment of BSI may improve patient’s outcome. Data on machine-learning models to predict BSI in pediatric patients are limited and neither study included time series data. We aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict an early diagnosis of BSI in patients admitted to the PICU. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who had at least one positive blood culture result during stay at a PICU of a tertiary-care university hospital, from January 1^st to December 31^st 2019. Patients with positive blood culture results with growth of contaminants and those with incomplete data were excluded. Models were developed using demographic, clinical and laboratory data collected from the electronic medical record. Laboratory data (complete blood cell counts with differential and C-reactive protein) and vital signs (heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure, temperature, oxygen saturation) were obtained 72 hours before and on the day of blood culture collection. A total of 8816 data from 76 patients were processed by the models. The machine committee was the best-performing model, showing accuracy of 99.33%, precision of 98.89%, sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 98.46%. Hence, we developed a model using demographic, clinical and laboratory data collected on a routine basis that was able to detect BSI with excellent accuracy and precision, and high sensitivity and specificity. The inclusion of vital signs and laboratory data variation over time allowed the model to identify temporal changes that could be suggestive of the diagnosis of BSI. Our model might help the medical team in clinical-decision making by creating an alert in the electronic medical record, which may allow early antimicrobial initiation and better outcomes.