Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith prediction, pick, start time, odds for UFC 301

Vitor Petrino and Anthony Smith meet Saturday on the UFC 301 main card at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

Last event: 3-3
UFC main cards, 2024: 31-32-2

Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith UFC 301 preview

Petrino has two bonuses in his first four UFC fights … 26-year-old Brazilian has eight of his 11 wins by stoppage, including seven knockouts … came to UFC through DWCS in 2022 with a win over Rodolfo Bellato, who now is in the UFC, himself … Smith lost a light heavyweight title shot to Jon Jones in 2019 … he’s been streaky since then at 5-5 … Smith is trying to bounce back from a current 1-3 stretch, including a knockout loss to Khalil Rountree this past December.

Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith expert pick, prediction

Filling out the main card is a light heavyweight showdown between Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino.

After accruing four straight wins in the octagon after a successful stint on the Contender Series, Petrino will have his wish granted regarding his callout of Smith. Although this feels like an apropos time to say be careful what you wish for, Petrino appears to have some decent promise given his athletic ceiling and the division he competes in.

Petrino’s last outing left a lot to be desired, but I have a hard time picking Smith given his inconsistency as of late.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1244458244044513280

Smith is a well-rounded fighter who is much livelier than what the betting odds are indicating, I just suspect that Petrino’s power and leg kicks will dissuade the former title challenger from the game he needs to play.

As a fan of Smith, I hope that I’m wrong here. But as an analyst, the pick is Petrino to produce a stoppage by Round 3.

Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith odds

Petrino is a huge 6-1 favorite, according to FanDuel. Petrino has been favored in all of his UFC fights, but never by this much. The only other times Smith was this big of an underdog was against Magomed Ankalaev and in his light heavyweight title shot against Jon Jones in 2019.

Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith start time, how to watch

As the third fight on the main card, Petrino and Smith are expected to make their walk to the octagon around 11:15 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 301.

For more detailed analysis from Dan Tom, check out his weekly show, “The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.”