Emmy Experts Typing: Will there be an unexpected Best Limited Series nominee again?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we revisit the limited races, now with “Baby Reindeer” in the mix.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back to type about the limited series race, which remains fairly top-heavy despite what the odds might suggest. To wit: Netflix smash “Baby Reindeer” is only in fifth place in our odds, even though it’s all-but-assured of being extremely win-competitive in this race and could usurp “Shōgun” in the end as the year’s one true sensation of the year (if the latter doesn’t move to drama as widely speculated this week). You were the earliest adopter of the Netflix juggernaut, which made landfall in Los Angeles this week for a splashy FYC event. The show feels assured of several top nominations, not just for series but lead actor for Richard Gadd, supporting actress for Jessica Gunning and Nava Mau, and writing and directing nominations. I have Gunning in first place (and with 100/1 odds) and I haven’t moved Gadd to the top only out of stubbornness. (I refuse to leave behind my beloved Toranaga, Hiroyuki Sanada.) But even with “Baby Reindeer” fever sweeping the world, I don’t think it’ll win Best Limited Series, only because “Shogun” is so epic and if not as widely seen, perhaps as beloved by its fans. I feel like we’ll be typing about those two shows for months here, so I also wanted to pivot to the rest of the category. I’ve given up the ghost, finally, on “Ripley” (you were right), so I’m left with the winter’s trifecta of “Fargo,” “Lessons in Chemistry,” and “True Detective: Night Country.” All three feel vulnerable to me, but absent other breakout limited series here, I don’t know what else could make it in. “Ripley,” sure, but that has maybe just become about Andrew Scott. “The Sympathizer” should be here, but the muted response from the general public has me wondering if Robert Downey Jr. could be its only major nomination. Apple is still flying high for “Masters of the Air,” but that show hasn’t broken through either despite its hunky cast. I’d love to see “Under the Bridge” here, but I won’t hold my breath. I guess what I’m typing is that this feels like a really competitive race with great shows that will just… be what everyone expects when nominations are announced. I’m sure you’re not confident in any shows other than “Shōgun” and “Baby Reindeer,” but do you imagine we’ll get any surprises here?

joyceeng: Wow! Forget “Sugar.” There’s no bigger twist than you jettisoning “Ripley.” You were so committed to it here and in your hypothetical drama series lineup should it have moved. What happened? Was it Melissa’s burn the other day? There are a lot of good shows in contention this year, but not many of them have made a lotta noise. Of the 2024 crop, it’s really just been “True Detective: Night Country,” “Shōgun” and “Baby Reindeer,” the last of which has been the loudest of them all. That’s great news for 2023 shows like “Fargo” and “Lessons in Chemistry,” which mostly hit what they needed to hit in the winter — and the latter arguably over-performed — because they could’ve been forgotten and pushed out had more 2024 shows exploded. Sure, it might be boring if the nominees are exactly as expected, but sometimes that’s just the way the the cookie crumbles. I don’t think we should try to force a surprise if the tea leaves aren’t there for one. That doesn’t mean there can’t be a surprise, but it might just be one of those things that we won’t know until we know, like “Welcome to Chippendales” last year. Some people might consider “Obi-Wan Kenobi’s” series nomination a shocker last year (and certainly it was odds-wise as it was in 12th place), but I don’t because that was one of my initial predictions early last spring and I should’ve stuck with it. I had it because it was an early release, made DGA and was a “fun” show. There’s not a ton of hopefuls this year that would fall under “fun,” especially as a filler nominee. However, even though it isn’t “fun,” I can see “Hunks” crashing in just as an enjoyable watch honoring the Greatest Generation. “The Sympathizer” is great, but it’s sadly behaving more like “White House Plumbers” than “Mare of Easttown” in the annals of spring HBO releases. If timing is not an issue, it might have enough street cred and admiration to perform like “Station Eleven” with nominations: a handful, including some above the line, but not series. RDJ should be good for the nom still, but depending on how noms shake out, he could be very vulnerable for the win, so the second leg of his EGOT tour might have to wait.

SEE Experts slugfest: ‘Sugar’ twist revealed, Emmy submission deadline and more

Christopher Rosen: I know when to cut my losses and with “Baby Reindeer” in play, “Ripley” feels like it will get squeezed out of its Netflix slot. You knew all this before, so why am I even repeating it now? (I guess for the readers who haven’t kept up with us this season.) As for Downey, I still think he can win even with “The Sympathizer” being unfortunately soft: there isn’t a lot of strong competition in that category anyway and he’s still Robert Downey Jr. Plus, not that it matters — as you are always willing to remind me — but he’s actually awesome on “The Sympathizer” and it feels like a combination of his snappy Tony Stark stuff and his “Oppenheimer” Oscar-winning character work. I guess we’ll soon see. One show we haven’t mentioned yet is “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans,” and I’ll be damned if I keep wondering if I’m underestimating it. The show didn’t break out and we know regular people weren’t super excited about the result. But it’s streaming on Hulu and loaded with the Big Acting Swings that the academy seems to love. What if that’s this year’s “Welcome to Chippendales” and it just kind of over-performs enough in the acting categories to make it into series? Would this be the “fun” show?

joyceeng: “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” is a lotta things, but I don’t think even its most diehard stans would call it “fun.” We also have heard numerous anecdotes about what a struggle watch it is for people. But it is absolutely in play for acting nominations and it’s the show that confounds me the most when it comes to acting. I feel like it can go any number of ways (zero noms? Five?) and none of them would surprise me. I’m still Swans-less in supporting actress, the category many once hopedicted Sandra Oh to win. Not to bring up “The Sympathizer’s” weakness again, but will she even get the nomination? Her Emmy hopes may rest on “Quiz Lady” in Best TV Movie.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Could ‘Fallout’ come out on top in Best Drama Series?

Christopher Rosen: I’ve still got Oh hanging on, but I’m not super confident about it, particularly with double “Baby Reindeer,” double “Shōgun,” Kali Reis and Aja Naomi King filling up the rest of the roster. That basically leaves Oh in the last position, fighting it out with Jennifer Jason Leigh, the Swans and Fiona Shaw, among other deserving contenders. So unless there’s a wealth of silent support for “The Sympathizer” out there, she might be on the outside looking in when nominations are announced. At least “Quiz Lady” is funny! Joyce, I’ll let you have the last word.

joyceeng: I’ve had Oh in seventh for a while and might just keep her there for now, only because I don’t wanna rack my brain to find a replacement. “Baby Reindeer” entering the chat has only made the limited field more top-heavy in multiple categories. And for how all the chatter about how deep the limited field is this year, there is now a very probable world in which “Baby Reindeer” and “Shōgun” split the above-the-line categories. I suppose that’s in a way more variety than “Beef” claiming five of seven.

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