Douglas Schoen and Saul Mangel: Biden’s misguided abandonment of Israel

President Biden has said he wants to help Israel defeat Hamas and rescue the hostages held in Gaza – including five Americans – and he also wants a second term in office. 

However, his decision on Wednesday to place an arms embargo on Israel, just as Israel seeks to defeat Hamas’ last remaining stronghold in Rafah, makes it even more unlikely that Biden will achieve either of those objectives.

Put another way, Biden’s decision to abandon Israel has immense political and strategic implications, for himself and the U.S. And, contrary to what Biden’s advisors may have told the president, virtually none of these will be positive for an administration already facing an uphill challenge in November.

Indeed, Biden’s historic and politically-motivated pivot away from America’s closest ally in the Middle East will likely do very little to alter Israeli military strategy, but it is almost certain to backfire on the president, to the benefit of Republican challenger Donald Trump, who was quick to lambast the incumbent. 

Writing on Truth Social, Trump accused Biden of “taking the side of these terrorists” who “murdered thousands of innocent civilians, including babies, and are still holding Americans hostage.” Trump may be unpalatable to some, but Biden’s abandonment of Israel may be enough to give the former president a pivotal boost in key swing states.

To that end, criticism of Biden came from all sides, underscoring both the widespread unpopularity of this decision, but also how big of a vulnerability it now is for the president.

Almost immediately after Biden’s announcement, moderate Democrats and Independents expressed their outrage, noting that the president’s decision endangers Israeli lives, was a transparent ploy to try and win Michigan, and does nothing to bring about an end to the war. 

At the same time, Biden’s pivot away from Israel certainly delighted Russia, China, and Iran, while alarming our other allies, who all now see that America’s “ironclad” support – for even our closest friends – is worth little, and that Biden may abandon other allies if he thinks it’ll help win a swing state. 

Domestically, Biden may have scored points with Progressives, but it will likely be fleeting, as the left-wing of the Democratic Party has shown themselves to be so extreme that they won’t be soothed by anything short of a total break in the U.S. – Israel relationship.

While the anti-Israel and often antisemitic protests on college campuses have dominated the news cycle, the data is remarkably clear that on the whole, Americans do not support the protests and strongly back Israel’s right to defend itself.

By a 19-point margin (47% to 28%), Americans oppose, rather than support, the college protests, as do Independents, critical to any winning campaign. More than 4-in-10 (44%) Independents oppose the demonstrations, while only one-quarter (24%) support them, according to Economist/YouGov polling.

Moreover, by a 2:1 margin (33% to 16%), Americans believe colleges have not been harsh enough in cracking down on the protestors, with nearly identical numbers among Independents (31% to 16%). 

In that same vein, if the Biden campaign was not myopically focused on young and Arab voters in Michigan and Minnesota, they would see that the overwhelming majority of Americans support Israel (80%) over Hamas (20%), think Israel should go through with an invasion of Rafah (72%), and believe Israel is trying to avoid civilian casualties (67%), per Harvard/Harris polling.

Thus, Biden’s decision to appease the anti-Israel minority and set up a collision course with the majority of Americans who believe Israel deserves American support in the fight against Hamas is not only bewildering, but demonstrates a remarkable lack of competence within the Biden campaign. 

Tragically, just days after recounting how the Holocaust began with “propaganda demonizing Jews; boycotts of Jewish businesses” and “harassment of Jews in the street and in the schools,” the President of the United States made common cause with protestors who use the same genocidal rhetoric as the Nazis, call for boycotts of Jewish businesses, and assault Jews in our streets and on campuses. 

Strategically, Biden’s decision to withhold weapons in order to prevent Israel’s necessary incursion into Rafah is not only misguided, but also counterproductive to the very goals of ending the war, defeating Hamas, and rescuing the hostages. 

In fact, virtually every decision Biden has made has prolonged the war and enabled Hamas to survive. 

This shouldn’t necessarily be a surprise, given the presence of Maher Bitar, a holdover from the Obama administration. Bitar now serves as Biden’s coordinator for intelligence and defense policy within the National Security Council. He is also a former Executive Board member for Students for Justice in Palestine, the extremist anti-Israel group which has been banned on dozens of college campuses due to their promotion of antisemitism and violent tactics. 

The administration’s incessant and hypocritical focus on preventing civilian casualties in Rafah – despite the fact that by virtually every metric, Israel has set the standard in terms of fighting a war against a terrorist group embedded in urban civilian areas – is the only reason the war hasn’t ended yet.

It is no coincidence that every time Biden or Secretary of State Blinken announce their opposition to conquering Rafah, criticize Israeli actions, or signal their intention to reward Hamas with a Palestinian State, Hamas digs in further in ceasefire demands. 

By trying to prevent Israel from defeating Hamas, the Biden administration is giving Hamas more aid and support than it is giving Israel. As Dennis Ross, Middle East envoy under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Clinton aptly described, Biden’s embargo “is a mistake; it takes all the pressure of Yahya Sinwar and pressure on him is the key to [a] hostage deal.”

Forty two years ago, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin lectured a young Senator from Delaware. Begin warned then-Senator Biden, “Don’t threaten us with cutting off your aid. It will not work…Nobody came to our aid when we were dying in gas chambers. Nobody came to our aid when we were striving to create our country…We fought for it. We died for it…And when necessary, we will die for [our principles] again, with or without your aid.”

Now president, Biden is not just threatening Israel with cutting aid, he has gone through with it. Unfortunately, this will not help Israelis nor Palestinians, and in all likelihood, will be remembered as one of the most ill-conceived political and strategic decisions of Biden’s presidency. 

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. Saul Mangel is a senior strategist at Schoen Cooperman Research.