UFC Vegas 92 predictions
Edson Barboza still has it.
The Brazilian striker has made a habit of having to fend off young and hungry challengers, a trend that continues Saturday when he takes on the undefeated Lerone Murphy in UFC Vegas 92’s main event. There’s no question that Murphy is one to watch in the ever-competitive featherweight division, but how will he fare against his most accomplished opponent yet?
Murphy’s six-fight unbeaten run in the UFC has flown slightly under the radar, in part because of inactivity due to injuries and Murphy lacking that signature name on his hit list. If he puts on an impressive performance against Barboza, expect Murphy to be the next British star to enter the title picture.
Also on the main card, the welterweight division heats up with matchups featuring Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris and Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj, Adrian Yanez welcomes Vinicius Salvador back to the bantamweight division, and Luana Pinheiro takes on strawweight lifer Angela Hill.
What: UFC Vegas 92
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, May 18. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook
Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
Edson Barboza rarely loses striking duels, so you know what that means: Lerone Murphy, it’s time to mix the martial arts!
While I’m normally loathe to encourage such churlish behavior (#KeepTheMartialArtsApart), Murphy has title aspirations that should take priority over proving his kickboxing credentials. We all know Murphy can strike, but why take a chance against a man who has left a trail of bodies behind at lightweight and featherweight? Go D-1, not K-1, Mr. Murphy.
The path to victory for Barboza? Same as it ever was. Keep it on the feet, stuff those takedowns, and put his opponent through the wood chipper. As fun as it has been to watch Barboza all these years, it can’t be fun for his opponents. Not only will he tear you apart for 15 to 25 minutes, at any point during that time he might also land a strike that puts you on a highlight reel forever. Barboza rules.
At 38, the clock has to be ticking on the Brazilian fan favorite, and Murphy is primed to capitalize on any decline in Barboza’s game. Murphy will show off his entire repertoire in his first-ever headlining assignment for the UFC and walk out with a convincing decision win.
Pick: Murphy
Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris
This might seem like an odd choice for a penultimate fight, but I’m glad Khaos Williams and Carlston Harris are getting their chance to shine. They’re both solid pieces in the welterweight division, and while I wouldn’t bet on either man becoming a contender in their own right, they’re legitimate tests for anyone with title aspirations.
Williams enters Saturday having won three of four fights, with his past two outings ending in split calls. He has a tendency to be too patient as he looks for the perfect counter, which can lead to his opponents racking up points as time ticks away. When he finds his openings though, Williams lets loose with entertaining flurries and connects with serious power.
Harris looks to make it three straight wins if he can get the better of Williams. “Moçambique” does a lot of his work from the outside, but won’t hesitate to mix in a takedown attempt if Williams tries to rush him. He’s deadly on the ground and capable of catching submissions out of nowhere.
I lean towards Williams’ knockout potential in this matchup as Harris can only avoid him for so long. Williams catches him in the second round and takes him out.
Pick: Williams
Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Truthfully, there’s no telling what to expect from Ramiz Brahimaj in his first fight since February 2022. The 31-year-old has been sidelined for a lengthy stretch due to a scary neck injury and just walking back into the octagon is in itself an achievement worthy of applause.
What we do know is that Themba Gorimbo has a ton of hype behind him, both because of his inspiring story and his well-reported association with Hollywood megastar Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. He hasn’t been doing too badly in the cage either.
Even though he made his pro debut in 2013, Gorimbo is only scraping the surface of his abilities. We know he has a relentless attitude, plus some pop in that right hand, but one gets the sense that he’s still making it up as he goes. His improvisational talents should be enough to get him past Brahimaj, though he has to be careful not to be tripped up by Brahimaj’s dangerous submission game.
The long layoff has me convinced that Brahimaj will start slow, and that won’t do against a fired-up Gorimbo. Both fighters have overcome a lot to get here — Gorimbo’s coach just lost his mother — so either way someone is primed to deliver an inspired performance. It’s Gorimbo’s turn this time.
Pick: Gorimbo
Adrian Yanez vs. Vinicius Salvador
Vinicius Salvador is fun to watch, isn’t he? Now imagine if his swashbuckling style actually translated into wins.
Look, I’m not a stick in the mud. I like a good time as much as anyone. I’m a fun guy. But at some point, all that showboating and bebopping has to add up to something substantial. That just hasn’t happened for Salvador yet, though perhaps moving back to a more comfortable weight of 135 pounds will serve him well. Maybe he’s the bantamweight Michel Pereira?
I hesitate to put Salvador at that level, and definitely don’t feel confident picking him over Adrian Yanez. It’s true that Yanez hasn’t lived up to some of his early hype, but at 30 years old there’s still plenty of time for him to elevate his game. He has some of the sharpest hands in the division and it’s easy to see how some defensive improvements could make him a contender.
Fortunately for Yanez, that won’t matter much against Salvador, who has his own issues with keeping his hands up. Salvador will do his best to go viral with some striking silliness, but once Yanez finds his rhythm, it’s Salvador who will end up on the wrong end of a meme.
Yanez by knockout.
Pick: Yanez
Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill
Luana Pinheiro’s past two fights have taught us a lot about her. The judo expert is a solid athlete who can out-muscle her opponents more often than not, but when it comes to the more adept strikers in the division, she can look like a fish out of water. Michelle Waterson-Gomez couldn’t quite take advantage of Pinheiro’s standup shortcomings; Amanda Ribas did so emphatically.
This puts Pinheiro in a tough spot against Angela Hill, MMA Fighting’s No. 12-ranked strawweight. “Overkill” has seen it all in this division and while a lesser experienced Hill could occasionally be overwhelmed by physicality, that version is long gone. In her place is the hardened vet we see before us today, a fighter that has rounded out her game in all aspects, shoring up her defensive grappling to keep the fight exactly where she wants it.
Even if Pinheiro can judo throw Hill around, keeping her grounded is another story entirely. It’s more likely that Hill frustrates Pinheiro with her scrappiness off her back before pulling away on the feet in rounds 2 and 3. Pinheiro is too tough to be the one that snaps Hill’s decision streak, but she’ll fall on the cards all the same.
Pick: Hill
Preliminaries
Tom Nolan def. Victor Martinez
Oumar Sy def. Tuco Tokkos
Melissa Gatto def. Tamires Vidal
Abus Magomedov def. Warlley Alves
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez