Kurtenbach: Las Vegas likes the 2024 49ers more than I do. But let me explain my side

The 49ers might have lost the Super Bowl in Las Vegas, but they sure made a good impression while they were there.

The NFL’s schedule was released on Wednesday, and while we’ve known the Niners’ opponents for months now, discovering the order – and times — for those 17 games was enlightening.

The Niners will have a brutal second half of their schedule. Eight of the final 10 games of the season will be played against 2023 playoff teams.

But the bookies in the desert (or are they just computers in a server farm, now?) like the 49ers to win more than 11 games this season — the team’s over-under win total for 2024 is set at 11.5.

I would take the under.

While I did pick the Niners to win 11 games in my way-too-early prediction Wednesday, I simply see more ways this could go wrong than right.

Twelve wins would be a hell of an accomplishment against this schedule. Thirteen wins seem outside the realm of logic (but certainly not the heart).

Let me explain: I’m betting the Niners have a Super Bowl hangover. That loss was a gut-punch that won’t be recovered from easily. And they won’t be the first folks to come back from Las Vegas feeling very much the worse for wear.

Remember: The Niners certainly had a hang-over one last time the played in the Super Bowl, though, to be fair, the world had ended between the team’s trip to South Florida and the start of the 2020 NFL season.

And this team — which has, in the past, treated September like the preseason — will not receive an easy entry into the 2024 season.

The Jets’ defense is incredible, and they might have an offense this season. The Niners will host them on Monday Night Football to start the campaign.

Two weeks later, the Niners will play the Rams, who might be my pick to win the NFC this season. (Calm down, I haven’t decided on them just yet.)

Those are two early tests in the first four weeks — plus whatever you get at Minnesota in Week 2.

The Niners could well be 2-2 by the time October arrives, leaving the Niners three losses for the remaining 12 games of the season if they’re to hit the over.

And folks, September is the easy part of the schedule. Kansas City, Dallas, at Green Bay, at Buffalo, at Miami, and Detroit loom in Week 7 and beyond.

My 11-win prediction also included a 4-0 record against the Cardinals and the Seahawks, as well as a 1-1 record against the Rams.

That might come to pass, but my prediction represents something like the best-case scenario — Arizona is poised to be feisty and Seattle is perhaps the league’s biggest wild card in 2024.

Then there’s the question of health. It goes both ways, yes, but a defining factor of the 49ers’ 2020 season (other than, you know, the obvious big thing that was happening) was injuries.

Everyone was injured on that team, from the start of the season to the finish.

The 2023 49ers had incredible injury luck, all things considered, and the bad luck they did have took a major toll on the team in the form of a three-game, mid-season losing streak and then a less-than-100-percent performance in the Super Bowl.

It would be a bold bet to expect that luck to continue.

This team’s Achilles heel last season was depth. As in: They didn’t have any.

And while I like their draft class and some of their free agent signings (just some), do the Niners look like a team that has a deep roster going into 2024?

I can’t make that claim. I don’t think you can, either.

It’s uncouth to predict specific injuries, but predicting that a team is generally less healthy than the year before is fair game. And that’s a prediction I am willing to make.

And with the second half of the season being a gauntlet, injuries can prove deadly to any “over” bet in 2024.

I expect the Niners to be a worthwhile team in 2024. I expect them to make the playoffs again. (That should only take nine wins.) I may, in time, even expect them to play for the title. We’ll see on that one.

And sure, they could win 12, 13, or even 14 games — if everything breaks right for them and they come out for the start of the season with points to prove.

For both of those things to happen?

That’s a bit too rich for me.