‘Survivor 46’ finale power rankings: Charlie Davis or Kenzie Petty will win

Two immunity challenges, two tribal councils, and one fire-making battle lay ahead for the five players still remaining in “Survivor 46.” On Wednesday, May 22 three of them will make it to the final tribal council, but only one will be named “sole survivor” and take home the $1 million cash prize.

Below, we break down in our “Survivor 46” finale power rankings why we think the strategic Charlie Davis or socially connected Kenzie Petty will win. We also explore the narrow paths that Liz Wilcox, Ben Katzman and Maria Shrime Gonzalez would have to take in order to beat them. Agree or disagree? Provide your own takes on who will in win the comments below or in our reality TV forum.

1. Charlie Davis (11/4 odds to win)

If the earlier part of season 46 lacked solid strategic play, Charlie single-handedly made certain that the final stretch of the game was packed with it. His slow work at reeling Kenzie, Liz and Ben in to a long term strategy against Maria paid off perfectly last week and he lucked out that it exposed Maria’s own plan against him in the process. Maria will be enemy number one at final five, and unless she wins immunity that should clear the path for Charlie to make it at least to final four where only fire could stand in his way of sitting in front of the jury. While “the edit” has provided the audience with a perspective of Charlie’s slight moves, in order to win he will need to communicate to his peers just how intentional everything was and how it worked in his favor. As strong as his game has been from an audience point of view, it’s still hard to tell who on the jury will be staunchly supporting him and who, if anyone, is looking to take him down.

2. Kenzie Petty (8/15 odds to win)

Of all the potential finalists, the one that seems to have the least disfavor with the jury is Kenzie and so she may very well be the one that enters final tribal council on the safest of ground. That being said, the case she has to present for what she did to win is not the most obvious and so she’ll need to come prepared to fight for her narrative. It will be interesting to see if she brings up Bhanu outing her and Tiffany as strong players during his pre-merge journey or if she admits to her own unrealized plan of eventually turning on Tiffany as strategic advancements. Or will she sit in front of an emotionally charged, bitter jury and present a case as the best social player among them that built connections the pushed her further day by day while the others failed to do so? A Kenzie win will depend entirely on the narrative she chooses to tell and how receptive the jury is to hearing it.

3. Maria Shrime Gonzalez (18/1 odds to win)

If the last two episodes have shown us anything, it’s that there is a serious crack in Maria’s armor and she may not be the strategic powerhouse that she so skillfully set herself up to be. It was indeed smart for her to keep Q close even (and especially) after everyone else ditched their allegiance to him because he became a pawn in her game and no one else’s. But beginning with the decision to make that alliance public by heartlessly denying Liz Applebee’s so that Q could enjoy back-to-back food rewards instead and then culminating with a disastrous failed attempt at blindsiding Charlie, Maria’s chances of actually winning have all been squashed. Still, we think there is a chance for her to bounce back, but it will require at least one more immunity win and the luck of a jury that hears her out for what could be the most compelling speech to be made by any of the five. Safe to say that Venus won’t be one of the jurors casting a vote in her favor, though.

4. Liz Wilcox (78/1 odds to win)

One of the most rewarding potential finishes would be to see Liz, who felt sidelined by everyone else for most of the season, come out on top. Her perfect speech to the jury would include how long she went without a bowel movement, her overcoming the disappointment of not being chosen for the Applebee’s reward, and of course lasting longer than her nemesis Q. It’s true that Liz has not spearheaded many (or any) of the big strategic moves of the season, but if anyone has “outlasted” the field of 18 then it is her. Not only is she the last remaining Nami in the game, but between a lack of food and the overall sense that she was barely taken more seriously than Venus was, Liz would be the winner that won against all odds.

5. Ben Katzman (78/1 odds to win)

While “the edit” is less of a tell of who can win in the new era, Ben’s season — especially post-merge — has been largely defined by his anxiety and night terrors. In that regard, he’s been more or a less a supporting character to Kenzie’s edit. Ben’s storyline has done more to push Kenzie’s social connection dominance forward that it has his own and so it’s hard to imagine that the season will finish in any way other than him casting a vote for her to win. That could be a surprising vote for him to cast considering there could be one or two other original Siga members among his choices, but both Charlie and Maria have been on Ben’s radar to vote out in the last few weeks. Ben’s own best chance to score a surprise victory would be to find the final hidden immunity idol (assuming Q’s is put back into play) and use it to make a plan of his own happen. Then, he’d probably have to be sitting at the end with Liz and Maria with a bitter jury eager to pick anyone other than Maria.

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