David Trone’s loss to Angela Alsobrooks proves money can’t buy love — or elections | GUEST COMMENTARY

In the 2000 election cycle, less than $500 million was spent on campaign advertising for the presidential, Senate and House races combined. Fast forward 24 years, and the expected expenditure for these same races is now a staggering $6.5 billion, a 1,200% increase. Yet, what some candidates are discovering is that “money can’t buy me love.” The biggest spenders do not always win.

In some contests, especially close ones, hefty campaign budgets can sway the small pool of swing voters and secure victory. But, contrary to conventional wisdom that money buys elections, an overwhelming spending advantage is no guarantee of victory. Last week’s fiercely contested Democratic primary for Senate in Maryland, between wealthy Congressman David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, made that clear.

Alsobrooks beat Trone by 10 points, despite Trone’s campaign having outspent Alsobrooks by more than $50 million. Trone’s nearly inexhaustible war chest built him an early lead, with winter polling showing a seven to 10-point lead over Alsobrooks, well outside the margin of error. However, in time, Alsobrooks managed to attract many prominent Democrats to her campaign, while Trone made several missteps that turned off some Maryland voters.

Excluding celebrities and incumbents, most candidates must dedicate substantial time and resources to building name recognition. Campaign spending develops that essential recognition. Despite Trone’s early polling lead, polls also showed a large share of undecided voters. This is common when the candidates are not well known. Undecided voters tend to be less informed and harder to reach with advertising because they are less likely to follow politics. It’s possible these less-informed but relatively partisan primary voters broke for the establishment-backed candidate, Angela Alsobrooks, despite Trone’s heavy advertising.

More recent polling showed the race tightening somewhat. An Emerson College/Hill poll from earlier this month showed Alsobrooks with a one-point lead, a statistical tie given the margin of error. This marked a shift from Trone’s double-digit lead earlier in the race. The survey showed Alsobrooks winning among Black and female voters, growing her ballot share with key demographics.

Despite the millions in spending, both candidates still had under 43% of the ballot share on the Emerson College poll, indicating there remained many undecided voters. While Trone may have purchased name recognition, Alsobrooks was building hers more organically through a strong grassroots ground game. It also made her limited spending more effective. Alsobrooks’ time in local Maryland politics helped her build rich establishment support, enabling her to produce a stinging TV ad featuring endorsements from Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, longtime Congressman Steny Hoyer and dozens more.

This isn’t the first time we have seen politicians fail to translate financial might into electoral success. During the 2020 election cycle, Republican Senators Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham handily won their reelection campaigns despite being outspent by a combined $45 million. In the 2018 Democratic Primary for New York’s 14th Congressional District, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated incumbent Joseph Crowley despite being outspent 18 to 1. Similarly, Kelly Craft outspent Daniel Cameron by nearly $10 million in the 2023 Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary but placed only 3rd. What these contests have in common are winning candidates with the political skills and charisma to build name ID organically and voter connections they didn’t have to buy.

Alsobrooks is a formidable opponent. She’s a Black female candidate who represented the second-largest county in Maryland in a state that has the seventh-largest Black population in America. She cultivated strong establishment support and raised around $8 million, nothing to scoff at in a primary. Given Trone’s spending dominance, he should have performed better, but he didn’t have the charisma, campaign discipline or political acumen to capitalize on his financial advantages.

What damaged Trone the most, and likely caused his downfall, were several messaging missteps he made that turned off Black voters. The most prominent occurred during a congressional budget hearing when he accidentally used a derogatory term for Black people while criticizing Republicans. He also used the term “training wheels” in an attack ad on Alsobrooks, deemed by some as misogynistic and racist. Throughout the campaign, he made these and several other avoidable mistakes. These political missteps are symptomatic of a politician who purchased his way into office rather than one who has the skills and experience to maintain message discipline.

Considering that registered Maryland Democrats are disproportionately Black and female, it was always going to be a challenge competing against a well-liked and experienced Black woman in a Democratic primary. Trone’s missteps likely alienated the very voters he needed to win over, underscoring that in politics, cultural sensitivity and personal connections can outweigh even the deepest pockets.

Sam Kay (sam@onmessageinc.com) is a pollster with OnMessage Inc. based in Annapolis. Benjamin Kay (bkay4@jhu.edu) is an economist at Johns Hopkins University.