Orioles minor league report: From Cade Povich to Jackson Baumeister, Baltimore’s pitching pipeline is starting to pop

No farm system in baseball is striking out more batters than the Orioles.

Just a few years ago, that sentence would’ve been unthinkable given Baltimore’s lack of pitching investment. Since Mike Elias’ first draft as Orioles general manager in 2019, the club has heavily focused on drafting college position players early in drafts instead of pitchers.

Fifty-three of the Orioles’ 112 picks over the past five drafts have been pitchers — a near-even split. However, through 2022, the club had never drafted a pitcher in the first four rounds and signed him. It took until Elias’ fifth draft last summer for him to do so when he selected three pitchers in the first four rounds.

The organization’s draft philosophy makes it all the more impressive that pitching is starting to emerge as a strength in this farm system after years of hitting prospects like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser leading the way. That is, of course, still the case with Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad — all top 100 prospects, according to Baseball America — atop Baltimore’s ranking.

But a growing group of pitching prospects have performed exceptionally well this season. The pitching pipeline, bolstered by the development of draftees, external additions via the trade market and international investments, is one the organization and the pitchers believe is underrated. Their performance so far this season is perhaps proving that’s true.

From Low-A to Triple-A, Orioles minor leaguers have struck out 1,663 batters in 1,397 innings this year — or 10.7 per nine innings. Triple-A Norfolk and Double-A Bowie both lead their respective leagues in strikeouts. High-A Aberdeen has been perhaps the best Orioles affiliate on the pitching side this year, ranking first in the South-Atlantic League in ERA (3.38) and batting average against (.201) and second in strikeouts-per-nine-innings (11.2). Low-A Delmarva, the weakest Orioles affiliate with a 13-25 record, still ranks third in the Carolina League with a rate of 10.7.

Matt Blood, the Orioles’ vice president of player development and domestic scouting, said during spring training the club’s development staff has done an “incredible job” to keep the organization’s pitching pipeline prosperous.

“If you look at objective numbers on our stuff and our performance, it’s at the top of the league with some of the other best organizations in development. And they’ve done that with not a high investment in the draft in pitching,” Blood said. “We have made some good trades and got international going. There’s other ways to acquire pitchers than just the draft. But relative to other organizations, we have made less of an investment in acquiring pitching and yet our performance has still been near the top. I would say that’s a testament to our pitching development staff and those pitchers for buying into what they’re telling them.

“We have major league caliber arms in the minor leagues, and they’re going to help the team this year and in the future.”

Here’s a look at 20 intriguing pitching prospects and how they’re performing so far this season.

The best of the best

Norfolk right-hander Chayce McDermott: No Orioles farmhand — and few minor league pitchers in baseball — strike out more batters than McDermott. The 2023 Orioles Minor League Pitcher of the Year has 57 strikeouts — second most in the International League — in only 38 innings with a 3.55 ERA despite a 15.2% walk rate. McDermott, who Baseball America ranks as the Orioles’ best pitching prospect, joined the organization in the Trey Mancini deal. He flashed his potential earlier this month when he threw the first 6 2/3 innings of a combined no-hitter.

Norfolk left-hander Cade Povich: Another trade acquisition, Povich became an Oriole in the Jorge López deal two summers ago. The 24-year-old is leading the IL in strikeouts (65) and ERA (2.08) across 47 2/3 innings. Povich, the club’s second-best pitching prospect, has started to quiet concerns about his strike-throwing ability this spring, lowering his walk rate from 12% last year to 8.9% this season.

Bowie right-hander Seth Johnson: One of the most intriguing arms on the farm, Johnson has struggled to begin the 2024 season with a 1.721 WHIP and 15 runs allowed (10 earned) in 22 2/3 innings. But in his first full season back from Tommy John elbow reconstruction, his health early on is more important than the results. Johnson, the organization’s third-best pitching prospect, joined the Orioles in the Mancini deal.

Aberdeen right-hander Jackson Baumeister: Despite being drafted in his age-20 season, Baumeister never needed to pitch at Low-A and went straight to Aberdeen to begin the 2024 campaign. The Florida State standout was selected 63rd overall in Competitive Balance Round B, making him the highest-drafted pitcher in the Elias era. Baumeister, the Orioles’ No. 11 prospect, has a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings with 33 strikeouts versus 19 walks.

Delmarva left-hander Luis De León: By this time next year, De León might be the Orioles’ best pitching prospect. The 21-year-old has gone from an under-the-radar signee to the club’s No. 5 pitching prospect in about two and a half years. In 28 innings with the Shorebirds, De León has a 2.25 ERA and an elite 35.3% strikeout rate.

Other top starters

Aberdeen right-hander Juan Nuñez: Also part of the López trade, Nuñez has posted a 2.45 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings this season. The 23-year-old is Baltimore’s sixth-best pitching prospect.

Bowie right-hander Trace Bright: The 2022 fifth-round pick entered the season with questions about his command, but he’s lowered his walk rate from nearly 13% last year to just over 10% this year. Bright, the Orioles’ No. 20 prospect, has a 2.53 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 32 innings.

Norfolk right-hander Justin Armbruester: After posting a 3.56 ERA between Bowie and Norfolk last year, the club’s eighth-best pitching prospect has struggled to begin 2024 with an 8.80 ERA.

Aberdeen right-hander Moisés Chace: No Orioles starter in the minor leagues has a better ERA than Chace’s 0.91. The 20-year-old Venezuelan was part of the first international class during the Elias era. He wasn’t a top-30 prospect last season but has jumped to No. 22 this year.

Bowie right-hander Alex Pham: After posting a 2.57 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 112 innings last year, Pham has pitched to a 5.29 mark this year. At 5-foot-11, Pham is perhaps undersized for a starter, but his career 29% strikeout rate might say otherwise.

The newest batch

Delmarva right-hander Michael Forret: When Colton Cowser graduated from prospect status, Forret replaced him on the Orioles’ top 30 list, taking over the last spot. The 2023 14th-round pick is just 20 years old after the Orioles drafted him out of junior college. He has a 4.26 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings this year.

Aberdeen right-hander Zach Fruit: Like Baumeister, the Orioles decided Fruit didn’t need to face Low-A hitters and started him in High-A. The 24-year-old has a 3.77 ERA and 37 punchouts in 28 2/3 innings this spring after Baltimore drafted him in the ninth round last summer.

Delmarva left-hander Riley Cooper: The former LSU standout’s 8.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best among all Orioles minor leaguers with at least 20 innings pitched this year. The 13th-round pick last year sports a 2.03 ERA to begin his first full season of professional ball.

Delmarva right-hander Braxton Bragg: Former college teammates with Povich, Bragg’s 8.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks among the best in Baltimore’s system. The 2023 eighth-round pick sports a 2.25 ERA and 0.958 WHIP.

Call to the pen

Norfolk right-hander Wandisson Charles: The 6-4 reliever joined the Orioles last year after spending the previous eight with the Oakland Athletics. Charles’ command (career 7.9 walks-per-nine-innings) is a concern, but he’s pitched much better in the Orioles’ system than he did with the Athletics. The 27-year-old has a 3.86 ERA in 14 frames this year.

Norfolk right-hander Kade Strowd: If a reliever not on the 40-man roster makes his way to Baltimore this season, Strowd might be the most likely candidate. With a 0.62 ERA and 20 strikeouts versus one walk in 14 2/3 relief innings between Bowie and Norfolk, Strowd has perhaps been the best inning-for-inning pitcher on the Orioles’ farm this season.

Bowie right-hander Keagan Gillies: The 6-8 Gillies is the only reliever on Baltimore’s top 30 list at No. 29. With hype surrounding his ability, the 26-year-old has a 5.19 ERA in 8 2/3 innings and has missed about two weeks with elbow inflammation.

Aberdeen left-hander Deivy Cruz: The lanky lefty pitched well as a starter last season for the Shorebirds, and he’s been just as good as a reliever for the IronBirds this spring. The Dominican Republic native has allowed just seven hits with 21 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings with a 1.72 ERA.

Honorable mentions

Bowie right-hander Kyle Brnovich: The 26-year-old’s 12.7 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate ranks fourth among starters in the system behind McDermott, De León and Chace. Brnovich, who joined the organization alongside Kyle Bradish in the Dylan Bundy trade, missed most of 2022 and 2023 because of Tommy John surgery.

Bowie right-hander Cameron Weston: No pitcher on the Orioles’ farm is better at preventing base runners than Weston, whose 0.853 WHIP is best among all Baltimore pitchers with at least 20 innings. The 2022 eighth-round pick has a 1.14 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings between Aberdeen and Bowie.

Farm files

Tides prospect Connor Norby returned Friday after missing a week with a wrist injury and picked up where he left off, going 6-for-13 with five doubles. … Holliday, the sport’s top prospect, went 5-for-25 with four walks and seven strikeouts last week. … Utilityman Terrin Vavra, who opened last season on Baltimore’s roster, went 4-for-13 with a double and four walks after missing the past calendar year with a shoulder injury that required surgery. … Bowie outfield prospect Dylan Beavers went 8-for-21 with two doubles and two homers last week. … Aberdeen catching prospect Creed Willems hit two more homers to increase his season total to nine. … Delmarva outfielder Braylin Tavera, the Orioles’ No. 17 prospect, was placed on the injured list last week with a right shoulder sprain.