'AI demand train running at full speed': Here's what Wall Street expects from Nvidia's 1st-quarter earnings

• Nvidia will report its first-quarter earnings results after the market close on Wednesday.
• Wall Street expects a continued increase in Nvidia's AI chip sales ahead of its next-gen Blackwell chip release.
• Here's what Wall Street is eyeing ahead of the chip maker's quarterly earnings report. 

Nvidia has a lot to prove when it reports its first-quarter earnings results after the market close on Wednesday.

That's because its stock has surged 91% year-to-date, is up about 200% over the past year, and is up nearly 500% since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

Here are the estimates for Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report:

• Revenue: $24.69 billion
• Earnings per share: $5.34
• EBITDA: $16.74 billion

With Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell AI chip set to be released later this year, analysts will be trying to gauge whether a slowdown in sales of its current-generation H100 chips in on the horizon. Also top of mind for investors will be updated guidance and views on the current supply-demand dynamic for its AI-enabling chips. 

Here's what Wall Street expects from Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.

Wells Fargo: "Improving H100 GPU Lead Times + H200 Ramp = Data Center Upside"

Wells Fargo raised its Nvidia price target to $1,150 in a note last week, arguing that "improving H100 GPU lead times + H200 ramp = data center upside."

"We are positive on the setup into F1Q25 print and see intra-qtr data points supporting Data Center revenue upside into $23-$24B+ range," Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers said.

Rakers said recent demand data points from Super Micro Computer and Taiwan Semiconductor bode well for Nvidia, as does recent commentary from mega-cap tech companies regarding their planned cloud capital expenditures.

Wells Fargo rates Nvidia at "Overweight" with a $1,150 price target.

Bank of America: Expect a beat but increased stock volatility as well

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya said that while he still calls Nvidia a "top pick" and expects the company to beat earnings estimates, four factors could increase the stock's volatility following the earnings report.

The first is the potential for quarterly revenue deceleration ahead of Nvidia's launch of the Blackwell chip. This highlights that the July quarter could see Nvidia deliver less than 10% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth as customers pause their purchases until the chip's release.

The three other factors include: "2) Greater China dependence for 2H: start of H20 shipments helps 2H growth pre Blackwell, but also raises China restriction risks, 3) Limited update to '40% inference mix' metric - recall this is what helped the stock on last call, 4) Upcoming Computex perhaps less newsworthy than last quarter's GTC anticipation," Arya explained.

Arya also said Nvidia could report more "normalized" gross margins in the mid-70s vs their consistent expansion to 77% over the past six quarters.

Bank of America rates Nvidia at "Buy" with a $1,100 price target.

Deutsche Bank: "AI leadership to continue"

Deutsche Bank said it fully expects Nvidia to deliver "healthy multi-billion dollar beats/raises on still healthy demand for AI compute."

"While on the margin some may be paring back orders ahead of the launch of Blackwell, we still expect aggregate demand trends to remain healthy. Overall, we remain impressed by NVDAs best-in-class technology roadmap and believe AI fervor by its customers is likely to be sustained (see still strong capex commentary from META, MSFT), yielding yet another strong quarter/guide," Deutsche Bank said. 

However, the bank sees much of that strength already priced into the stock, leading the firm to believe that Nvidia stock is "fully valued."

Deutsche Bank rates Nvidia at "Hold" with a $850 price target.

Bloomberg Intelligence: "Nvidia has more levers to attack the market"

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Oscar Hernandez Tejada said in a recent note he fully expects Nvidia to report "a solid beat and raise" on Wednesday, arguing that "Nvidia's AI demand train running at full speed." 

"During 1Q, we saw multiple demand signals, namely rising cloud capital-spending outlook, AI upside by TSMC and accelerating AI investments from sovereign entities, highlighting continued momentum. With H100 lead times falling and H200 and GB200 products now in the mix (with higher average selling prices), Nvidia has more levers to attack the market," Tejada said.