Who will win ‘Survivor 46’ after messy gameplay in ‘Mamma Bear’?

We are moments away from the “Survivor 46” finale, and after a season of messy gameplay and no clear strategic frontrunner, it is confusing as ever as to who will ultimately win the title of Sole Survivor. In last week’s episode, “Mamma Bear,” one of the most visible, uproarious contestants of the season was eliminated, Q Burdette, leaving just the Top 5 contestants still in the game. Let’s break down this penultimate episode to determine who will come out on top in the final episode and where these remaining five players stand.

The week prior, many viewers were confused about Ben Katzman‘s stray vote for Kenzie Petty on what was a unanimous blindside of Venus Vafa and whether there was any strategic reason for it; turns out it was a moment of mental lapse after so many days in the game, but either way, it does not look good on him. Meanwhile, the long term duo of Charlie Davis and Maria Shrime Gonzalez have realized simultaneously that they need to turn on the other very soon in order to advance forward in the game and have a shot of winning, leading to a creatively edited sequence where their confessionals lined up after the other.

At the reward challenge, Charlie pulled off the victory, which included getting letters from home, and he chose to take Kenzie and Liz Wilcox, giving the latter her first food reward. They all agreed to go for Maria, but the plan was ruined after she won the immunity challenge by a mile, to the point where most players just gave up. Meanwhile, Q was able to find an idol back at camp and immediately told Maria about it, while convincing her to go after Charlie at the next vote.

SEE ‘Survivor’ winners list: All seasons

Given this is only one of two times left an idol can be played, one would think this would be a very easy vote for Maria and Q to let everyone pile on the latter and have him play the idol so they can send out Charlie. But of course, confidence got in the way for Q, who was considering holding on to his idol.

At tribal council, we were treated to an Erik Reichenbach-style send-off where we were shown every single player’s vote before it was read by Jeff Probst, with Maria and Q going for Charlie and the rest going for Q. And once Q chose to not play his idol, the suspense was lifted and he was a goner, making this the fourth consecutive episode where a player went home holding an idol and the fifth time this season, after Venus, Tiffany Nicole Ervin, Hunter McKnight and Jemila ‘Jem’ Hussain-Adams. Unbelievable. And a record we will probably never see again for a long time.

So after another crazy tribal, who will win “Survivor 46”? This is a case where none of the Final 5 have made particular groundbreaking or even acknowledging moves that they could solely take credit for, with the exception of Maria, who just voted wrong and is widely perceived as a threat, so it will be very difficult for her to get to the end. The other four are huge question marks and it may come down to how the jury perceives them, or if they even like them. Liz and Ben seem unlikely as their social and strategic bonds are not as high as Kenzie and Charlie, but on the other hand, the latter two also have not claimed any control as of yet, so unless one of them pulls off a singular move that stands out, it may come down to which one is more well-liked (or if either wins the fire-making challenge). One thing Charlie has going for him that Kenzie doesn’t is that he has been on the right side of every vote since the merge, which has been the determining factor for the last few seasons, but something feels like this jury will be unpredictable with who they choose as a winner, especially since Kenzie has some close friends on the jury. So it will be exciting to see who comes out on top to win “Survivor 46.”

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