Marin could face hit from proposed budget cuts

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s revised budget proposal for 2024-25 could cost Marin a minimum of $5 million, according to a county analyst.

“The administration’s proposed cuts, if enacted, would severely impact counties’ ability to deliver on services and programs that Californians rely upon: the social safety net, housing, homelessness services, public safety and infrastructure,” Talia Smith told the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday.

Newsom began unveiling the proposal on May 10, and he continued filling in the blanks throughout last week.

“He released it over several days, and it was very sparse in detail,” Smith said.

This year’s document was 44 pages long, about 200 fewer pages than last year.

“We all know that the state is facing a very serious deficit,” Smith said. “That deficit has actually only gone up since January. In January, we were at about $38 billion, and now it’s about $7 billion higher.”

The state’s deficit has been a moving target since the Legislative Analyst’s Office estimated the shortfall to be $68 billion in December. The governor cited a different figure, $38 billion, when he submitted his initial budget in January.

In February, the Legislative Analyst’s Office revised its estimate to $73 billion. The governor is now projecting a $44 billion deficit for 2024-25.

“It’s not a one-year deficit,” Smith said. “It’s going to be several years.”

The Legislative Analyst’s Office has forecast ongoing deficits of over $20 billion a year through the 2027-28 fiscal year.

The cut that would cost Marin County the most would be the governor’s plan to eliminate several homelessness programs, most notably the Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention (HHAP) grant program. Smith estimated Marin could lose $2 million in grants it would otherwise expect to receive.

HHAP grant money has been used to cover the county’s growing costs for providing ongoing supportive services to people it has housed.

During the March budget workshop, Carrie Sager, a homelessness official for the county, showed supervisors a chart that illustrated the yearly costs for providing supportive services to people at Project HomeKey sites at 3301 Kerner Blvd. in San Rafael and 1251 S. Eliseo Drive in Greenbrae. The chart showed the costs rising from $461,143 in the 2023-24 fiscal year to $2.3 million by the 2027-28 fiscal year.

Smith said Newsom is also proposing the elimination of $200 million in ongoing funding to county public health departments.

“That’s very concerning,” Smith said. “In January, we converted six, fixed-term positions at the county to ongoing, and many other counties did the same.”

Those six positions staff the county’s outbreak prevention and infection control team that assists nursing homes and residential care centers. The team was created during the height of the COVID-19 epidemic when nursing homes were ground zero for coronavirus deaths. The proposal comes amid growing concerns that bird flu might spark another pandemic.

“It’s really pulling the rug out from under us, especially for communicable disease control,” said Dr. Matt Willis, the county’s public health officer. “It’s ill-timed.”

Willis said the proposed cuts would also reduce funding for the county’s ongoing testing of wastewater for new COVID-19 variants, other viruses and illicit drugs.

Unlike the $2 million in homeless services grants that Marin County would lose, the public health funding cuts would result in an ongoing loss of $1.2 million.

Smith said Marin County would lose another $1.1 million in ongoing funding if Newsom follows through with a proposal to make charter schools eligible for Educational Resource Augmentation Fund (ERAF) money. Marin is one of five counties that has been accused of receiving extra ERAF funding because of the way they factor in charter schools.

Other cuts proposed by Newsom in the revised budget would be less expensive for the county. Smith estimated the governor’s plan to eliminate a CalWORKS family stabilization program would cost the county $300,000. The program provides money, temporary housing and counseling to families who are dealing with substance abuse, domestic violence or the risk of homelessness.

Newsom’s proposal to eliminate a new family-friendly and child-centered caregiver approval program for foster care will cost the county an estimated $280,000. Smith said the governor is also proposing to withdraw the final, third year of funding for a public defender pilot program. She said Marin will lose about $270,000, which allowed it to employ an additional deputy public defender.

Smith cautioned that her report on the revised budget was only preliminary and additional fallout from budget cuts is to be expected. For example, Newsom is proposing to cut $420 million in funding statewide to a behavioral health initiative for children and youths. The program provides $295,000 in grants to fund licensed crisis specialists in Marin schools.

Smith said she would provide supervisors with a more detailed report in June.

“We’ll know more then which of these proposals are still moving forward,” she said.

The Legislature has until midnight on June 15 to pass a budget bill for the upcoming fiscal year.