Homes in most metropolitan areas are overvalued, a new report says. Here’s why.
If you’re in the market to buy a home right now, chances are you’ll pay more than the house is worth. According to a recent report from Fitch Ratings, home prices in 90% of metropolitan areas are overvalued right now.
And the most overvalued homes, according to the report, are clustered in the South, with Tennessee, Arkansas and South Carolina seeing the sharpest price spikes.
Typically, when mortgage rates go up, home prices go down. But right now, prices are high. That’s thanks to good ol’ fashioned supply and demand, per Fitch Ratings Director Sean Park, who authored the report.
“Demand is high, but the supplies are limited, so that’s why the housing price is increasing,” he said.
Ever since the interest rate slump about three years ago, the housing market has been nothing like what passed for normal before the pandemic.
“The normal housing market is what one sees on television, where one visits three houses, takes time and decides which one they want to choose,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
Instead, the reality is one out of every three homes has multiple offers, Yun said, with buyers offering more than the asking price. The other problem is mortgage rates.
“Now that the mortgage rates are higher, well, the current homeowners are refusing to list their property,” Yun said.
Those “golden handcuffs” are a big factor behind the lack of housing supply.
Overpricing isn’t as dramatic in cities like Austin, Boise and Charlotte, where spikes in home building have helped cool the market. The states seeing the most overvalued homes are also seeing population growth, and therefore more demand.
“I’ve had clients ask me when the bubble is gonna burst for a decade. It’s not gonna burst. Nashville is on fire,” said Greater Nashville Realtors President Kevin Wilson.
Middle Tennessee, he said, is seeing its population grow by nearly a hundred people per day. And they are more likely to be able to afford homes than they would be in other states.
“it has had to do with the lowest unemployment rate, I believe, in the nation, with no state taxes,” Wilson said. “Compared to a lot of the other large metro areas, we still have what they would consider a lower cost of living.”
Wilson does expect to see the supply increase and mortgage rates cool soon. But home buyers who can afford to get into the market now can take advantage of the decreased competition now and refinance once interest rates finally drop, he added.