Will ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ be the franchise’s first film to win Oscar for Best Visual Effects?

With the release of “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” on May 10, this year’s Best Visual Effects Oscar race just got a lot more interesting. That’s because we’re almost guaranteed to get three, possibly even four, movies in the race that are follow-ups to previous Visual Effects nominees. “Apes” is likely to be the fourth movie in its franchise nominated for the innovative performance capture used to help create the film’s photo-realistic apes. Three previous films, starring Andy Serkis, were nominated for Oscars in the category in 2011, 2014, and 2017, but none of them won.

The work done by director Wes Ball and his team has made “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” a serious contender in multiple below-the-line categories, not just visual effects. Its production design and sound are equally impressive. But the academy branch that’s most likely to be impressed will be the one that has often nominated movies with photorealistic CG animals in the past. Jon Favreau‘s “The Jungle Book” and Ang Lee‘s “Life of Pi” are two recent examples that both ended up winning the Oscar.

The Oscar race began earlier than usual this year when Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune: Part Two” opened in March to almost unanimous acclaim, immediately setting it up to follow 2021’s “Dune: Part One” into the Oscar race. “Part One” won the Oscar for Visual Effects, but that was a slower pandemic year, when there weren’t as many big VFX movies released. Even so, it seems likely to offer “Apes” its strongest competition.

Also, opening this weekend is George Miller‘s “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” the prequel to Miller’s six-time Oscar-winning “Mad Max: Fury Road,” which cleaned up in the below-the-line categories in 2016 but did not win for Visual Effects despite its admired mix of practical and digital effects. That went to Alex Garland‘s “Ex Machina” in what was considered a major surprise win. “Furiosa” utilizes as many effects as “Fury Road” to create its world and for its giant action set pieces.

Another potential player in this year’s Visual Effects category is Warner Bros’ “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire,” which is the definition of a CG-heavy movie, although with Warner Bros already having “Dune” and “Furiosa,” it might decide to put its entire FYC push into those two movies instead. Also, 2021’s “Godzilla vs. Kong” wasn’t nominated for its VFX, and other than the Toho-produced “Godzilla Minus One” last year, none of the modern Godzilla movies have been nominated for their visual effects. On the other hand, 2017’s “Kong Skull Island” did receive a Visual Effects Oscar nomination.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe hasn’t had any luck in the Visual Effects category, receiving numerous nominations since 2008’s “Iron Man” without ever winning, but it’s too early to tell if the VFX work in the upcoming “Deadpool and Wolverine” will be strong enough to make it into the mix, especially since it might also have to contend against the less ostentatious VFX movies that are often nominated, such as last year’s “Napoleon.” Something like Alex Garland‘s recent “Civil War” would certainly fall into that category.

We mustn’t forget that the Barry Jenkins-directed “Mufasa: The Lion King” prequel will be released over the holidays; Jon Favreau‘s 2019 photoreal adaptation of “The Lion King” was also a Visual Effects nominee, but ended up losing to Sam Mendes‘ “1917.”

Many other Oscar races will begin shaping up as we move through the summer and into the fall festival season, but at least when it comes to Visual Effects, it seems like we already have some real contenders and maybe even a frontrunner or two. Among them, “Planet of the Apes” stands a good chance of wowing the visual effects branch to get itself a nomination, and possibly finally the win?

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?