Forecasters Make Aggressive 2024 Hurricane Season Prediction
In what should come as little surprise given weather patterns in recent years, the NOAA released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, which suggests that we'll be seeing above-normal hurricane activity this year.
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are giving an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a five percent chance of a below-normal season, which begins on June 1 and runs through November 30.
Forecasters also estimate that there will be a 17 to 25 total named storms this hurricane season, which refers to storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Out of that number, eight to 13 are forecast to develop into full hurricanes with winds 74 mph or higher, and between four and seven will become major Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher. They likewise have 70 percent confidence in the predictions of these ranges.
There are a number of factors at play in coming up with the determinations, such as near-record warm ocean temperatures, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. The impending La Niña, which will soon replace the rapidly weakening El Niño, is also expected to have a huge impact, as the weather pattern will likely push warmer waters towards Asia in the Pacific. The La Niña will also likely be responsible for a hotter-than-average summer in the United States.
"With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D, in a statement. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
And with deadly tornados ripping through the midwest this week, the forecast puts an emphasis on emergency preparedness.
"Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today," added FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. "Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow."
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— NOAA (@NOAA) May 23, 2024
Here are the storm names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, according to the @WMO:https://t.co/Yb8VFbdqX5 pic.twitter.com/1J4HPqMjbP
The NOAA also released its list of tropical storm names for the upcoming season, which include: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helen, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.