Why aren’t the Royals making changes in the outfield?

The Royals aren’t getting much offensive production from their outfield.

The Royals have been riding high on a six-game win streak, and while the offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders, there are some reasons for concern. The bottom of the lineup has struggled to get going offensively, with outfielders MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe among the worst hitters in baseball. Kyle Isbel and Nelson Velázquez have also gotten off to slow starts as well. In fact, collectively, Royals outfielders are hitting .201/.261/.327, giving them a 65 wRC+, the worst in baseball.

The Royals find themselves in contention early in the season, placing greater importance on winning each game. Their evaluation phase from last season is over, raising questions on how patient they should be with MJ Melendez while he continues to slump. But it seems clear seven weeks into the season that the Royals need to make some changes in the outfield.

The Royals have internal options they could turn to. Drew Waters, the switch-hitter who the team acquired from the Braves in 2022, nearly made the Opening Day roster this year. He has gone to Triple-A and hit .302/.373/.504 with eight steals and could at least provide solid defense and speed. The 25-year-old has been a bit underwhelming in 445 career MLB plate appearances, but his line of .231/.306/.402 would still represent a major upgrade over what the Royals have been getting.

Then there is Nick Loftin, the former first-round pick who the Royals were effusive in their praise for when he was selected, even suggesting they considered him with the #4 overall pick. Loftin homered for the third time in 21 games for Omaha last night, and is hitting .301/.402/.494 in Triple-A overall. His time in the big leagues has been much more limited, but he has held his own, hitting .308/.369/.385 in 103 plate appearances.

J.J. Picollo has talked about wanting players on the roster with options, giving the team roster flexibility. They have that with Melendez and Velázquez, with either able to be sent to the minors without risking losing the player. So why haven’t the Royals made what seems like an obvious move?

Many have suggested that perhaps the Royals are stashing Waters and Loftin in the minors to preserve their trade value, lest they be exposed at the big leagues. That could perhaps be the team’s thinking, but if so, it makes little sense.

First, it is tougher than ever to transition from Triple-A to the big leagues. A player that rakes in the minors is not necessarily going to perform at the big league level. That could be why the Royals don’t think Waters or Loftin would be an improvement over what they have now, but it also shoots down the idea that protecting players from the big leagues will increase their trade value. Waters has already shown he can hit in the minors, the only way he can increase his limited trade value is to hit at the big-league level.

Second, the Royals are in a pennant race right now. Depriving yourself of a player who might be able to help your offense and keep you in contention so that you might be able to trade him in July is short-sighted. Wins matter now. Any help, even at the margins, is important. If the team doesn’t maximize their chances of success now, there may not be a reason to make a mid-season trade if the team falls out of it.

Finally, if we’re being real, Waters and Loftin aren’t going to be the centerpiece of a deal. Right now they project as role players - who could still have positive contributions at the big league level! - but the trade value is more of a throw-in to a deal that would surround a younger prospect with more potential. There is little trade value to protect there.

More likely, the Royals believe in the players they have at the big league level. They selected these players, and they are making the calculation that the players they have now project to outperform their internal alternatives. Are they correct in those projections? Melendez certainly has some decent underlying metrics, but is trending in the wrong direction and looks lost at the plate. Velázquez may be heating up a bit, but ZIPS does not project him to be above replacement level the rest of the way. The Royals certainly have more info than we do. But they need to be correct in their assessment.

Perhaps the solution will come later this summer through a trade or signing. But the Royals can make changes now, and while things are going well this week, the outfield will eventually need to produce to keep the good times rolling.