2023-24 Season in Review: Jeff Carter

Carter’s final year in the NHL was another tough watch for Penguins fans.

Vitals

Player: Jeff Carter
Born: January 1, 1985 (Age 38/39 season)
Height: 6’ 3”
Weight: 219 pounds
Hometown: London, Ontario, Canada
Shoots: Right
Draft: 2003 first round (11th overall) by the Philadelphia Flyers
2023-24 Statistics: 72 games played, 11 goals, 4 assists = 15 points
Contract Status: Carter played out the final season of a two-year contract signed back in January 2022 that carried a $3.125 million cap hit. He announced his retirement at the end of the 2023-24 season.

Monthly Splits

via Yahoo!

Story of the Season

Expectations for Jeff Carter entering the 2023-24 season were about as low as anyone on the team and the results were about as expected. Since signing a two-year contract extension in January 2022, Carter’s play has slowly eroded as he aged and he became an outright liability for the Penguins on the ice.

There was a brief time early in the season where Carter was relegated to the press box as a healthy scratch and there was hope that’s where he was going to remain. That was not the case as injuries put Carter back in the lineup where he stayed for the majority of the season, playing in 72 contests.

All was not lost for Carter in what turned out to be his final NHL campaign. Though he struggled at both ends and was in general a black hole for the Penguins, he still managed to score 11 goals, ensuring a double digit goal total for the 19th time in 19 seasons. Remarkably, four of his goals this season turned out to be game winners, with six coming either on the power play (4) or shorthanded (2).

Carter announced his retirement from the NHL after the season.

Regular season 5v5 advanced stats

Data via Natural Stat Trick. Ranking is out of 17 forwards on the team who qualified by playing a minimum of 150 minutes.

Corsi For%: 44.3% (15th)
Goals For%: 39.4% (16th)
xGF%: 42.4% (15th)
Scoring Chance %: 44.4% (15th)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 43.0% (16th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 4.7% (16th)
On-ice save%: .938% (3rd)
Goals/60: 0.45 (14th)
Assist/60: 0.27 (17th)
Points/60: 0.18 (16th)

Carter is the perfect example of the numbers matching the eye test. It was clear to everyone watching that he was struggling and the stats here show that. He ranked at or near the bottom of every category among Penguins forwards and his scoring rates were abysmal. There’s no doubt the Penguins had a lot of struggles with their depth forwards in 2023-24, but Carter was by far one of the worst.

Charts n’at

Via HockeyViz and JFresh Hockey

Carter’s linemates consisted of a rotation of fourth line depth players. Even at the age of 38, Carter was the most reliable in terms of health, only missing 10 games with a handful of those being healthy scratches.

Offensively, the Penguins got very little from Carter this season, especially at 5v5. That’s not totally surprising coming from a fourth line player, but combined with a negative effect on defense as well it’s a bad combination.

It was a night and day difference in terms of offensive production with Carter on the ice compared to when he was on the bench. That’s not solely on Carter himself because he never got much help from any linemates, but the offense was generally a black hole when he was out there.

Not great when just about every player on the roster performs better without you but you still stay about the same regardless of your linemates. That was the case for Carter this season as shown above.

Carter somewhat improved this year over last but still a whole lot of red in those numbers is never a good sign. While he did hit double digit goals again, his assist numbers tanked and put a giant dent in his offensive efficiency.

From a defensive perspective this isn’t half bad but the offensive numbers as ghastly to look at. He barely shot, didn’t pass, and couldn’t exit the zone effectively. Just provided nothing offensively to help out with the depth scoring.

Highlights

Questions to ponder

Does Jeff Carter have a Hall of Fame resume?

Carter will be an interesting case to keep an eye one once he qualifies for the Hockey Hall of Fame ballot in a few years. He ranks 71st all-time in goals scored with 442 and his two Stanley Cup victories will surely draw the eyes of some voters. The question is will that be enough to get him over the top and into the Hall someday.

Ideal 2024-25

After announcing his retirement following the final game of the Penguins season, Carter talked about spending more time with his family and watching his children grow up. He talked about missing many milestones because of hockey, so hopefully now he will get to enjoy more of those moments with his wife and kids.

Bottom line

Father Time waits for no one and Jeff Carter was the perfect example of that fact. When Carter came over from the Los Angeles Kings in 2021, he was one of the Penguins most valuable players, helping lead them to a division crown. Even in 2021-22, his first full season with the team, Carter still displayed flashes of his old self that led to his ill fated two-year extension.

Those final two years of his career were his statistical worst and his play badly regressed to the point he was an outright liability to the Penguins despite his usage in high leverage situations. Though fans clamored for his benching, Carter still played 72 games in 2023-24, potting 11 goals and hitting double digits in the category for the 19th time in 19 NHL seasons.